Russia has made it clear – a UK face-off could lead to escalation

As the country wonders whether Russia may have had a hand in fires deliberately started at properties linked to the Prime Minister , a report suggests that a Russian naval vessel may have fired warning shots near a yacht in the Channel.

The arson attacks already feel like something from the more sinister kind of spy novel. Now we may be dealing with a confrontation which, if not on the high seas, sits uncomfortably close to the UK’s shores.

Certainly, the Ministry of Defence is concerned enough to confirm it is “investigating reports of an incident in the Channel”. The Russian ship involved in the alleged incident is the frigate Admiral Grigorovich .

Shorts

This comes as John Healey, in charge of the Ministry of Defence until his resignation last week , reminded the House of Commons: “Nato has now said we must prepare for war with Russia within the next five years.” Healey spoke of an “age of hard power and rising threat. This is not the moment for calibration or incremental change.”

There was a change in UK policy towards Russia’s “ shadow fleet ” – tankers carrying oil for export from Russia in defiance of sanctions – in the early hours of Sunday. For the first time, Royal Marine Commandos boarded a “shadow fleet” vessel in the English Channel, an operation the MoD hailed as a move to “disrupt Putin’s war chest”.

While the Kremlin did not respond to reports of that incident, it may be that – while details remain unclear – what has now happened is a warning that any attempt to confront the Russian navy may lead to confrontation.

Certainly, the situation as a whole suggests rising tension. The war in Ukraine has been on the agenda for G7 leaders meeting in France, but a renewed offer from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has so far received only a lukewarm response and no commitment.

Commenting on the case of the Ukrainian man found guilty of the arson attacks on the properties connected to the Prime Minister, Helen Flanagan, the Metropolitan Police’s head of counter terrorism, said that there was “no evidence” that Moscow was behind the attacks.

That will not stop speculation that Moscow may have been somehow involved. The details that came out in court of people being recruited via social media to carry out the attacks suggest similarities with an arson committed at a Ukrainian business in east London in March 2024. The Russian mercenary group, Wagner, was believed to have ordered that.

Besides, the Kremlin or its agents are hardly likely to issue a statement saying, “Yes, it was us”. That many people will wonder whether it was is enough to serve their purpose of trying to intimidate and unsettle those countries, like the UK, which have supported Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

That war shows no sign of ending, and the cases of arson, like the reported incident in the Channel, are a reminder that the Kremlin is keen to put Western resolve to the test.