Why 0.1% of Britons could determine the prime minister’s fate

Ashton-in-Makerfield, northern England  —

Far from the gilded halls of Westminster , an unassuming community center – squat, utilitarian, and with a parking lot whose potholes overflow with water whenever it rains – has become the center of power in British politics .

Here, in rooms more accustomed to hosting bingo nights, dance classes, sports watch parties and weddings, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s campaign team is plotting his return to parliament. If he succeeds, it is likely he will challenge Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the center-left governing Labour Party, and so the premiership.

Burnham is widely perceived to be the country’s most popular politician, but he cannot challenge Starmer’s crumbling authority unless he is a sitting member of parliament (MP). And without Burnham’s presence, no Labour leadership race can really materialize despite seven ministers resigning from Starmer’s government since a drubbing for the party in May’s local elections, which do not affect the national government but provide an important indication of the public’s mood.

Burnham has circled a potential seat near Manchester for months. In February, the party’s governing body blocked Burnham from running in another by-election. But, as Starmer’s political capital has eroded ever further, he could do nothing when Burnham’s ally Josh Simons resigned his seat in the Makerfield constituency last month. Burnham was promptly selected as Labour’s candidate, making Thursday’s by-election perhaps the most consequential in British history.

An electorate of around 76,000 now holds the fate of Britain’s prime minister and the direction of the Labour Party in its hands, since many Labour faithful believe only a new leader can salvage the party’s flailing electoral prospects as its traditional voter base fractures – drawn towards the populist left-wing Green Party or the populist hard-right Reform UK, often in once solidly Labour constituencies like Makerfield.

Running under all this for Labour is an existential subtext: If Burnham, often dubbed “The King of the North,” cannot defeat Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon in Makerfield, there is little hope for the party’s other candidates in similar constituencies.

Both Burnham and Kenyon declined to speak with CNN, saying they were focused on talking directly to constituents rather than the media.

Such high stakes have made this normally overlooked area the effective center of Britain’s political universe. Activists and MPs have arrived from all over the country to help canvass and senior government ministers have traveled “up north” from London to support the campaign, implicitly endorsing Burnham, who has all but pledged to dislodge Starmer, their current boss.

Suited journalists huddle in a local cafe, making calls to update their London offices on the latest gossip, trading snippets of information about how many MPs they think support Burnham’s leadership ambitions or his plans to officially unveil his leadership campaign should he, as is widely expected, win this election. Outside a row of shops in Ashton-in-Makerfield town center, anti-Reform and pro-Labour campaigners stop weary residents to talk politics.

Yet, outside Ashton, which has attracted national journalists for its rail links to London and high footfall, life in the other small towns which make up the constituency continues much the same. Only residents complaining about the volume of campaign leaflets posted through their doors and a few signs peeking out of hedgerows and living room windows (“Vote Andy,” “Makerfield needs Reform” or “Restore Britain,” they shout) denote the significance of the election happening here.

By-elections are typically important for their ability to act as bellwethers, offering an imperfect snapshot of voters’ preferences between general elections. They are not normally the vehicle by which prime ministers are chosen. But these are extraordinary times in British politics.

Since he rode to power in a landslide victory for Labour almost two years ago, Starmer has become trapped in a descending spiral of unpopularity which now, finally, seems terminal. Despite governing with an enormous majority, he has failed to articulate the precise nature of the “change” he promised to deliver, u-turned on several key policies, and left himself with few levers for increasing government spending.

Labour’s popularity has fallen accordingly, in echoes of the fate suffered by the center-right Conservative Party. These two parties have dominated British politics for more than a century, and their waning grip could stress an electoral system more used to balancing two or three parties, rather than the five who now take significant shares of the vote. Nigel Farage’s Reform, which currently leads most national opinion polls, provides the main opposition for Burnham in Makerfield.

So far, Burnham’s current position outside Westminster has largely shielded him from any a…