What Burnham as PM would mean for UK’s Brexit reset

Andy Burnham will face immediate pressure to agree tricky Brexit reset deals if he takes over as prime minister next month with EU sources suggesting he will not rip up difficult compromises agreed under Sir Keir Starmer.

EU sources made clear that Brussels would go ahead with the planned summit with the UK on 22 July – at which deals are to be agreed on youth mobility, food and drink trade, and aligning carbon taxes – even if Starmer is replaced in No 10.

Some in the EU had been arguing for a delay given the Prime Minister’s leadership crisis , with a move against him expected as early as next week should Burnham win Thursday’s Makerfield by-election.

Shorts

But the two sides have agreed to go ahead regardless, meaning Burnham could face immediate decisions on difficult trade-offs on visas issued to EU nationals under-30 and become a rule-taker from Brussels on food and drink trade ahead of the summit – if he is prime minister by then.

One EU source said “it seems unlikely that Burnham would go against the compromises” agreed under Starmer, suggesting he would face having to defend decisions that he has not made and which are likely to be criticised by the Conservative Party and Reform UK.

Burnham ‘will be under pressuer to delay summit’

However, Anand Menon of the UK In A Changing Europe think-tank said Burnham will not feel pressure to go ahead with Starmer’s deal and could choose to delay the summit to take another look at the agreements on the table.

He told The i Paper : “It’s a second order issue – we need to distinguish between the reset and EU relations, unless we get unwanted outcomes. But if Burnham comes in and says, ‘Let’s slow down a bit’, I don’t think it would be a catastrophe for him.”

Burnham’s camp refused to comment, insisting the leadership hopeful is entirely focused on Makerfield. For him to be prime minister in time for the summit it is likely he would need Starmer to step down with no other challengers so he assumes the leadership, rather than fight a drawn-out leadership battle.

Despite Starmer and the EU agreeing a summit on 22 July, which is now an effective deadline for negotiations, they remain far apart in key areas.

Sticking points remain over tuition fees

EU demands to lower university tuition fees for Europeans travelling to the UK remains a major sticking point in negotiations.

Brussels continues to insist that an agreement in this area should be tied up at the summit. But the UK is still arguing that it never agreed to fees being part of the youth mobility deal which it is hoped will be signed off at the summit, and wants to talk about the issue afterwards.

EU sources suggested the two sides were close to a landing zone on the number of visas issued on any youth mobility scheme, but conceded this could still shift before the summit, while a UK source said nothing is agreed.

Nevertheless, it is understood that discussions are taking place around the EU’s idea of an “emergency brake” on visas if the number issued gets too high, rather than a hard cap on numbers as initially demanded by the UK, which could signal a potential concession from Starmer.

Starmer won’t be drawn on rejoining the EU

It came as the Prime Minister dodged questions on whether he, like Burnham, wants the UK to rejoin the EU in his lifetime.

Starmer told reporters at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France: “One of the reasons that we’ve been able to make such good progress with the EU is, firstly, a joint recognition by myself and EU leaders, that we shouldn’t spend the whole time looking backwards to Brexit, and going over and over the Brexit vote, we should look forward to what a relationship with the EU looks like.”

Pressed again, he added: “We’ve got a clear manifesto commitment in terms of not rejoining the EU, and that’s why we’ve gone for the closer relationship that we’re building.

“We’re slowly but surely building with the EU.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey meanwhile challenged Labour’s leadership hopefuls to “move on from the torpor and timidity” of the party’s approach to the EU, challenging Burnham and his rivals to axe Labour’s red lines on staying out of the single market and customs union if they succeed in ousting Starmer.

Davey said these restrictions are “holding Britain back” and claimed Brexit is costing Britain £250m a day, adding at the European Movement summit in London: “They are hurting the British people. And they are playing into the hands of [Nigel] Farage and Reform. So my message to Andy Burnham, to Wes Streeting – to whoever the next prime minister may be – is this: Drop those red lines. Drop them now.”