The negotiations are a stark symbol of the president’s failure. But any deal is better than endless, foolish war.
President Donald Trump stands in the ring after Justin Gaethje defeated Ilia Topuria in a lightweight title bout during UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House, Monday, June 15, 2026.
(Mark Schiefelbein / AP)
When it comes to negotiating an end to war, Donald Trump suffers from a severe case of premature proclamation.
The attack on Iran that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched in February has disrupted the global economy, sending oil prices spiking, while utterly failing in its stated objective of regime change. Voters widely, and accurately, view the war as an unmitigated disaster.
Mindful of the political consequences of the war and eager to soothe both the electorate and jittery markets, Trump has since April repeatedly promised that a quick end to the fighting is just around the corner. According to CNN, Trump has announced an imminent ceasefire no less than 38 times in the last two months.
Given the president’s history of lying on this and countless other topics, it was natural to be suspicious on Sunday, when, in his typical hard-sell mode in a Truth Social post, he announced ,
The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!
This post was not quite true—the Strait of Hormuz is not actually ready to open immediately—but it falls under the category of wild exaggeration rather than outright deception. There has been a diplomatic breakthrough, and we don’t have to rely on Trump’s florid and often false words to verify it, since the Iranian government itself has affirmed that it is ready to sign a “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) with the United States on Friday. The MOU will reportedly establish a ceasefire and set a framework for negotiations on thorny unresolved issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.
There’s another reason this imminent ceasefire seems more serious than Trump’s earlier fabulations: The strongest opponents of the deal, notably the Israeli government and its hawkish allies in the United States, are livid and already working to sabotage negotiations.
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On Sunday morning, Israel launched an attack in Lebanon that was widely seen as an attempt to derail the signing of the MOU. Speaking to Axios , Trump fumed , “It shook it up. It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now.” The president added, “Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgment. I let him know that.”
Prominent US hawks, notably Senator Lindsey Graham and radio host Mark Levin , are also expressing trepidation about the deal. More forthrightly, Mark Dubowitz, who runs the ultra-militarist think tank The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, laid out plans for hamstringing negotiations and preparing for a resumption of fighting:
Refuel energy markets. Rest and rearm the military. Develop a plan to support Iranians to cripple the regime. Enforce sanctions with relentless pressure. Don’t get played at the negotiating table. Test Tehran early. Give little. Demand results. Walk away fast. Hit harder.
While the full text of the MOU has yet to be released, the hawks are right to be concerned. Given Iran’s military resilience and the stranglehold it now has on the global economy through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the final negotiated deal is likely to be filled with many concessions and far less threatening to Iran’s regional power than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015.
The New York Times reports that Israeli anger at the impending deal spans the political spectrum. The newspaper cites an “Israeli who had been briefed on the deal with Iran, and who requested anonymity to discuss diplomacy,” who claims that the agreement has the following problems:
There are no clear answers regarding the treatment of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and not enough curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, with the deal appearing to rely on Iranian good will.
Instead of creating the conditions for the collapse of the Iranian government, the deal would allow funds to start flowing back into its coffers.
The deal lays out no clear mechanism for forcing Iran to halt its support for its proxy forces. But it would mean the suspension of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, the militant group it is fighting in Lebanon.
If this Israeli account is accurate, then Trump’s Iran deal will be a major setback for US/Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. It will be tempting for some of Trump’s Democratic opponents to join with Republican hawks and taunt the president for making a bad deal. This…
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