USMCA not expected to be discussed at G7 summit, Carney says

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Canada's Ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman, seen earlier this year in Ottawa. Wiseman reiterated that even if USMCA is not renewed, it will remain in place until 2036. Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

Canada’s ambassador to the United States is trying to lower the temperature around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement with the renewal date for the North American trade pact just a few weeks away.

“Everybody take a deep breath, relax, it’s all going to be OK,” Ambassador Mark Wiseman told a business crowd in Toronto on Monday.

Wiseman was interviewed by Darryl White, the Bank of Montreal’s CEO and a member of the advisory council on Canada-U.S. relations, at the Canadian Club Toronto.

Looming in the background of Monday’s talk was the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement on trade, better known as USMCA, which enters a renewal period starting July 1.

USMCA not expected to be discussed at G7 summit, Carney says

Wiseman tried to put that date into context for the audience.

July 1 does not mark the expiration of USMCA. It’s the start of a renewal window, he said, which gives the three parties a chance to iron out irritants and the option to renew the pact for another 16-year period.

USMCA is set to expire in 2036 but a renewal would extend that expiration to 2042. If the parties don’t agree to a renewal, USMCA will be subject to an annual rolling review for up to 10 years.

“It doesn’t matter if we work through those issues and conclude that review on July the 2nd or conclude that review in January, or if we never, frankly, conclude the review,” Wiseman said. “The base case is that the agreement remains in place through ‘til 2036.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has openly mused about walking away from the deal he negotiated in his first term. Wiseman noted the United States could have triggered the exit clause with six months’ notice at any point — not just after the July 1 date.

He also pointed to U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer saying the United States wants to preserve the “pillars” of USMCA as another reason to avoid panic over the fate of the trade pact.

The vast majority of Canadian exports to the United States have so far been protected from Trump’s blanket tariffs because they’re in compliance with USMCA. But the trade agreement has not exempted Canadian steel, aluminum and autos from the steep duties imposed under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act.

Wiseman said those tariffs are “biting” the Canadian economy and are the current focus of Canada’s negotiating team in Washington.

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Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last week that he expects to see bilateral agreements negotiated with the United States, “adjacent” to USMCA. If those agreements resolve outstanding issues, that might open the door to an extension of the trade pact, he said.

While official USMCA trade negotiations between Ottawa and Washington have yet to begin, talks between the United States and Mexico have started.

LeBlanc met with Greer in Washington last week and they’re expected to connect again this week on the sidelines of the G7 in France.

Asked by White about the tone of talks south of the border, Wiseman said they were “productive, serious, informed and respectful.” He downplayed Trump’s recurring claim that the United States doesn’t need anything from Canada.

Wiseman said that while the trade talks are top of mind in Canada, attention is limited in the United States, where the war in Iran and other domestic issues are more likely to dominate headlines.

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“Americans don’t wake up every day thinking about Canada. We are obsessed, for good reason, with the United States. They’re not obsessed with us,” Wiseman said.

Four months into his term, the ambassador said he’s optimistic about the future of the trading relationship. He acknowledged that disputes over softwood lumber and dairy products have become sticking points for the United States in negotiations.

But Wiseman said ironing out those issues is in the best interest of both countries. The two nations rely on having “cogent” relationships on trade and defence, he said, and geography is not going to change.

“We’re not moving out of the neighbourhood and neither are they. And so we’ll do what’s in our interests and figure it out,” Wiseman said.