Recent political developments involving the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) have ignited fresh discussion over the BJP -led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Whether they can move closer to the two-thirds majority required to pass major delimitation amendments is the one of the biggest discussions.
A rebellion crisis seems to have gripped major opposition parties, with lawmakers attempting to break rank in the TMC and Sena UBT and rumours of something similar brewing in SP surfacing. (File HT photos)
The debate gained momentum after reports of a split within the TMC and signs of rebellion among MPs belonging to the Shiv Sena (UBT). While the numbers have improved for the ruling alliance, the NDA remains short of the required numbers for constitutional amendments in both Houses of Parliament.
Also read: 19 MPs' signs, 20 serial numbers: Mystery over 20th TMC rebel as party heads for split
Why does the two-thirds majority matter?
Constitutional amendments require approval by a special majority in Parliament. Earlier this year, the government introduced bills linked to delimitation and the implementation of women's reservation. But failed to secure the required support. The proposed legislation requires a stronger parliamentary majority than the NDA currently possesses.
Delimitation refers to the redrawing of parliamentary constituencies based on population changes. Several opposition parties, particularly from South India, have raised concerns about fresh delimitation exercise. They argue that delimitation could alter the balance of representation in the Lok Sabha.
NDA's current position in the Lok Sabha
According to recent parliamentary calculations, the NDA currently holds 293 seats in the 540-member Lok Sabha. A two-thirds majority would require support from around 360 members.
The alliance's strength could rise if rebel MPs from opposition parties back the NDA. Reports suggest that seven rebel TMC MPs and six rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs could support the ruling alliance. If that happens, the NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha could rise from 293 to 316 seats. Even then, it would remain more than 40 seats short of the two-thirds mark of 360.
Rajya Sabha equation
The picture is slightly different in the Rajya Sabha.
The NDA currently holds 149 seats in the Upper House. Following the recent Rajya Sabha elections and potential bypoll gains in West Bengal. The strength is expected to increase further. According to projections, the alliance's tally could rise to 158 seats. Since the two-thirds mark in the Rajya Sabha is 164, the NDA would then be only six seats short of the required number.
This means the NDA could be only a few seats away from the required number in the Upper House.
Why DMK and SP are being discussed
Political discussions have also focused on the possibility of support from the DMK and Samajwadi Party (SP), though neither party has announced any such move.
According to reports, the DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha. The Samajwadi Party has 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha. If support from these parties were to materialise, the NDA's numbers would improve significantly in both Houses. However, both scenarios remain speculative.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has publicly dismissed reports of a split in his party, while there has been no official confirmation from the DMK regarding support to the NDA.
Also read: Samajwadi Party split next? In bombshell claim, UP minister says ‘entire SP ready to join BJP’; Akhilesh responds
What happens next?
For now, the discussion remains centred on parliamentary arithmetics rather than confirmed political realignments. The reported TMC rebellion and developments within Shiv Sena (UBT) have strengthened the NDA's position, but the alliance is still short of the numbers needed to independently push through major constitutional amendments.
Whether the NDA can bridge that gap will depend on future political developments.
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