Q&A: What do China’s provincial five-year plans say about climate and energy?

China’s provincial-level governments have now all published their 15th five-year plans – economic and social development blueprints for 2026-2030.

These provincial plans reaffirm the overall trajectory of China’s energy transition, but reveal regional differences, based on economic and geographic considerations.

Provincial plans are a critical mechanism for showing how high-level targets from the central government will be translated into action.

For example, binding indicators set at national level include reductions in carbon intensity – carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of economic output – and the proportion of non-fossil energy in total consumption.

Subsequent targets are then set for each province and tied to the performance evaluations of top local officials, who are ultimately responsible for delivery.

Similarly, provincial plans also build on qualitative policy directives in the national-level plan, such as further developing new-energy vehicles (NEVs) and hydrogen industries.

Specific policies, such as boosting production capacity, appear in several provincial-level plans.

Below, Carbon Brief analyses what the 31 documents say about energy and climate.

What do the provincial plans say about climate goals?

At the broad level, the new provincial plans follow China’s overarching climate goals. All 31 provincial-level jurisdictions in mainland China have pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030.

Every plan also mentions the core elements of China’s energy transition strategy, including solar, wind, hydrogen, energy storage and upgrading the power grid.

While solar features in every plan, specific interests in the technology vary from province to province.

Some set goals to add new solar capacity by 2030. Zhejiang province aims to add 90GW of solar capacity, while Shaanxi plans  to “accelerate” construction of wind and solar bases in the north of the province, as well as “solar+” models – such as “ forest-solar ” and “ tea-solar ” – in the south. Several plans mention developing offshore solar farms in the next five years.

However, others instead choose to focus on recycling old solar panels or strengthening solar R&D.

The chart below shows the frequency with which key climate and energy terms appeared in the 31 provincial-level five-year plans.

The number of provinces that mention key climate and energy terms in their 15th five-year plans (2026-2030). Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

Almost every plan mentions growing consumption and production of NEVs. Growing the NEV industry is seen as an essential step to China becoming “a leading power in automobiles” and “a key strategic move” to address climate change, according to a plan for the sector’s development issued by the State Council in 2020.

Around 15 provinces pledge to promote NEV uptake. Jilin set a target for NEVs comprising more than 50% of new car sales by 2030, although its current rate is already thought to be 47%.

While the central government is issuing directives to limit “ overcapacity ” in the sector, more than 20 provinces say they will continue developing their NEV industries, with many aiming to generate hundreds of billions – or even trillions – of yuan in value.

Among them are established NEV manufacturing bases such as Shanghai and Chongqing.

Meanwhile, 24 provinces will prioritise developing renewable power “ direct connection ” models, in which renewable generators supply industrial users via a dedicated line – a system that could boost consumption of clean energy.

Provinces diverge in terms of what other technologies they name and how detailed their plans are.

For example, offshore wind and nuclear are mentioned by 11 and 12 provinces respectively, with both technologies mostly targeted to be built in coastal provinces.

Inland provinces, such as Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, instead focus on developing wind and solar farms across desert regions.

But in general, variation reflects more than just geography or resources endowment, says Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

“The differences between provinces reflect primarily differences in economic development capabilities and industrial structure,” he tells Carbon Brief.

Yang Li, deputy executive director at the Beijing-based thinktank Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), echoes this, stating that the variation reflects differences in the resources available to provinces and their own strategic positioning.

Provinces are also increasingly discussing how to manage the decommissioning of solar and windfarms.

Around 19 provinces have set out plans to recycle old clean-energy equipment, a topic that featured in few plans in the previous five-year cycle. While most of the plans that mention the goal only briefly flagged the issue, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and Qinghai have pledged to create dedicated recycling parks or industrial clusters.

How do provinces…