Morning Update: Carney’s trade missions hit a few snags

Good morning. Mark Carney’s trade promises are running up against stubborn provinces and an even stubborner Donald Trump – more on that below, along with Canada’s new Governor-General and Pierre Poilievre’s call for national unity. But first:

Today’s headlines

Ottawa is planning a social media ban for children under 16

A new study says fatal clashes involving police are on the rise , though criminal charges are rare

Iran and Israel halt their attacks after Trump demands an end to the strikes

Sign up for Morning Update:

Reading this online? Start your morning with context and insight on the day's biggest stories, in your inbox every weekday.

Subscribe now

Open this photo in gallery:

Prime Minister Mark Carney, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, and U.S. President Donald Trump speak during the draw for the 2026 FIFA Football World Cup. MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

Politics

Stalled at the border

As a Goldman Sachs exec, a central banker and now the Prime Minister, Mark Carney has squared up against various crises with a straightforward mantra: “A plan beats no plan,” he loves to say.

So in the year-plus since his Liberals won the federal election, Carney has announced all manner of plans. Ottawa would deliver new foreign trade deals, double the rate of home construction, build serious infrastructure projects, boost military spending, reduce immigration targets, push through a middle-class tax cut and dismantle internal trade barriers to grow a sluggish economy – some of it by last Canada Day.

Well, he got the tax cut , the reined-in immigration numbers and the turbo-charged defence budget . But many Carney pledges are very much a work in progress. National housing starts aren’t remotely on track to hit 500,000 a year by 2035 – instead, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation expects 247,000 starts this year, dropping to 223,000 in 2027, then 216,000 the year after that. And while Ottawa is currently evaluating 15 major projects to fast track, none have moved to the construction stage yet.

Since it can be tricky to stay on top of these plans, The Globe put together a status report on Carney’s main promises and will be checking in periodically to see how much headway he’s made. There are 16 different areas to monitor, but let’s zero in here on three of the biggies: U.S., foreign and interprovincial trade.

U.S. trade

The promise: Get the tariff-happy Trump administration to ditch its protectionist levies and renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The progress: Not great. At first, Carney was looking to strike a comprehensive trade and security deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. Then he down-shifted to the narrower goal of getting relief from tariffs on aluminum and steel. Now he’s pitching a “Fortress North America” that would offer closer economic integration on several key industries in exchange for scaled-back U.S. tariffs. Throughout it all, Trump’s taxes on Canadian autos, metals and wood products have remained doggedly in place.

Open this photo in gallery:

The Port of Vancouver in April, 2025. Isabella Falsetti/The Globe and Mail

Also, the U.S. and Mexico formally kicked off bilateral USMCA negotiations without Canada at the table. Oh, and last week, Trump decided it was a good time to revive his annexation threats.

Foreign trade

The promise: Double non-U.S. exports by 2035, to $600-billion a year.

The progress: Not bad. This particular pledge came in October, so it’s still early days, but our exports have shown signs of diversification. Roughly one-third now go to countries other than the U.S., up from around a quarter before Trump launched his trade war – although those numbers are flattered by booming prices and increased demand for crude oil and gold. Carney heads to Europe later this week for economic talks with France and Ireland, and he’s hoping to ink trade deals with India and South American countries before the end of the year.

Interprovincial trade

The promise: Make it easier to do business inside our own borders by removing internal trade barriers by Canada Day (2025).

The progress: A mixed bag. Carney’s government did move quickly to scrap the barriers that were Ottawa’s doing, but a bunch of the hurdles to free trade in Canada are imposed by the provinces. And while they’ve talked a big game over the past year about better collaboration, the independent organization Build Canada – which publishes a slick tracker on internal trade – found just 31 per cent of their pledges have actually materialized.

As a result, the rules governing alcohol sales across Canada remain a total mishmash. Manitoba and New Brunswick are the only two provinces to let residents buy any type of booze from anywhere in the country, forfeiting the hefty taxes their liquor boards collect as alcohol importers and distributors. B.C. and Nova Scotia allow Canadian-made wine from all other provinces, but not spirits (unless, in B.C.’s case, they’re from Saskatchewan) or beer (unless it enters Nova Sco…