Ward 1 (Duncan Village Pefferville) Buffalo City: ANC 45% (46%) DA 23% (41%) UDM 16% (1%) PA 13% (1%) EFF 1% (8%) SACP 1% PCM <1% (1%) OLA <1%
The setting: Ward 1 is west of the KuGompo City (formerly East London) centre. It has three distinct residential areas. Duncan Village is a township which has produced world-champion boxers Mbulelo Botile and Phumelela Cafu. Pefferville was proclaimed a coloured area during apartheid. Braelyn has historically had a strong Indian and Muslim community.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the DA by 178 votes and won the ward because of its wide margins over the DA in Duncan Village – 44% of the voters in the ward were registered in Duncan Village. The ANC beat the DA by 554 and 385 votes in the two Duncan Village districts, winning 70% and 71% of the vote, respectively. The DA beat the EFF in those two districts, taking 17% and 14%. The EFF garnered 12% in both districts. The turnout in Duncan Village was slightly higher than the ward average, with 41% of the registered voting population showing up.
The DA won the other three voting districts, but it was not enough to make up the difference. In Pefferville, where 28% of the registered voters in the ward live, the DA won 60% against the ANC’s 30%, with a 303-vote margin. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) obtained only 1% support in Pefferville, finishing behind the local Progressive Community Movement (PCM) (4%) and the EFF (3%). The turnout in Pefferville was slightly lower than the ward average, at 37%.
In Braelyn, the DA won 69% and 53% of the vote, with the ANC second on 20% and 28%. The DA’s margin in Braelyn was 383 and 75 votes, respectively. The EFF was third there with 5% and 8%. The turnout in Braelyn was the same as Duncan Village (41%). Braelyn accounted for about 27% of the voters’ roll in 2021.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC came first here with 42% support, followed by the DA on 32%. The EFF was third with 12% and the PA fourth with 6%. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) managed 2%. The DA was hurt by the PA in the ward, and the ANC by the EFF.
The by-election: Kuhle Ciliza, the ANC ward councillor, defected to the PA with two other ANC councillors. Ciliza was on the ballot for the PA in the by-election. It was a crowded field which included the South African Community Party (SACP) and local parties, One Love Alliance (OLA) and the PCM.
The ANC retained the ward comfortably, beating the DA by 831 votes. In Pefferville, the turnout was just below the ward average. The ANC was not affected by the PA defection. It increased its percentage vote share from 30% t0 45%. The PA surged to second place with 27% from only 1% in 2021, while the DA plunged from 60% to 25%. It is evident that the DA lost the bulk of its support to the PA in Pefferville, but also lost support to the ANC.
In Duncan Village, the ANC lost ground to the UDM. Its support declined from a respective 71% to 54% and also from 70% to 62%. The UDM received an impressive 27% and 35% support. Both the DA and the EFF’s support totally collapsed in Duncan Village, with each party only obtaining 1%, after winning more than 10% in 2021. The PA was third in Duncan Village with 8%. In Duncan Village, ANC and DA support went to the PA, while the UDM picked up voters from the ANC and the EFF. The turnout in Duncan Village was higher than the ward average with a turnout of 48% and 50%, respectively.
On a poor night for the DA the Braelyn voting districts were an exception. The party’s combined vote share grew in these districts from 64% to 74%, while the ANC’s shrank from 22% to 14% and the PA moved from 1% to 8%. As per 2021, Braelyn had a poor turnout, with only 32% of voters showing up.
In the final Ward 1 analysis, the ANC was able to replicate its 2021 showing with good growth in Pefferville, and while losing ground in Duncan Village, the high relative turnout there masked the losses in Duncan Village and Braelyn.
The UDM and PA will be encouraged by their performance in this by-election. At present the UDM has only one seat in the metro and the PA none. This result suggests both parties will increase their representation on the council come November.
The DA losing voters to both the PA and ANC will concern the party. Its Pefferville and Duncan Village results were not pretty. It was an especially poor result for the EFF. The party increased its percentage vote share in Buffalo City from 12% to 16% on the provincial ballot. It almost replaced the DA as the second-most-popular party in the metro. Its support crumbled from 8% to 1%. It was also a woeful showing by the SACP which found no chemistry with Ward 1 voters and finished on 1%.
Poll: 41% (40%)
Ward 10 (Buffalo Flats Amalinda) Buffalo City: ANC 65% (55% PR) PA 13% (2% PR) DA 12% (17% PR) EFF 5% (11% PR) UDM 3% (1% PR) OLA 2% PCM <1% (1% PR)
The setting: Ward 10 is west of the KuGompo City centre and west of Ward 1, in the area known as East Bank. Most of the voters in the ward are…
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