After a season of intense heatwaves, India will not have a lot of respite this monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting a “below normal” monsoon season.
On May 29, the India Meteorological Department further downgraded its monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average as against the earlier 92%, and forecast a warmer June.
One reason will be an El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean that can lead to a weak monsoon. There are concerns about this year experiencing a “ super El Niño ” event beginning in the second half and stretching on to early next year.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the global ocean atmospheric phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a powerful atmospheric-ocean phenomenon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes the phenomenon as follows: “During normal conditions in the Pacific ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths…. During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.”
El Niño is associated with increased rainfall and flooding in parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States; drought conditions in eastern and northern Australia, Indonesia, southern Africa, and parts of South Asia due to suppressed monsoon activity; and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of climate prediction services at the World Meteorological Organization, points on graphs displayed on a computer screen at the headquarters in Geneva on June 1. Credit: AFP. But, each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organization. The organisation does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of its classifications.
With the war in West Asia still impacting global energy supplies, the El Niño (super or not) will further add to woes. India’s economy has also been impacted by these global events and a weak monsoon will have a cascading impact on sowing, yields, food security, water security, energy demand, food inflation and possibly even strong heatwaves next summer.
What does the science say so far about this year’s El Niño and what steps could India take to better prepare for its impacts? We spoke to Raghu Murtugudde, an earth systems scientist, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland, and visiting faculty at the Kotak School for Sustainability at Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur.
Edited excerpts:
There is a lot of discussion about the El Niño developing later this year, and there is some concern about it being a “super” El Niño. It is even being compared to the El Niño event of 1877 which is linked to the Great Famine that year in British-ruled India. What do we know so far and in your experience, is it going to be a super El Niño?
“Super El Niño” is just a made-up word, but nonetheless indicates a very strong El Niño. Will this one grow strong? Models are saying that, and there seems to be a consensus about it. But a consensus answer is not always the right answer, because all the models are kind of latching on to similar things.
There is a supply of warm water below the surface on the equator, which tends to come up in a couple of months. But how strong it will get will depend on whether that will create this kind of positive feedback or vicious cycle with sea surface temperatures, pressure gradients, winds… they all begin to talk to each other and give feedback, then you can get a strong El Niño. But models are notoriously bad at predicting the amplitudes very well.
When do you think the picture will be clear?
Right now, it’s already clear that this year we’ll have an El Niño, because when there is so much warm water in the tropical Pacific, we will get something like an El Niño.
But what matters is what that will do to the monsoon. It also depends on whether the models can say something about the onset, the distribution of rainfall in regions and time. These things are complicated and models are not terribly good at it. So, we have to watch.
Hopefully in the next couple of months, everything will begin to become more obvious because already, the monsoon onset (which was earlier forecast for May 26 by the IMD) is delayed . It might happen in the first week of June, which will still be normal. But if it gets delayed further by another week or two, then there might be speculation or suspicion of a super El Niño again.
— India Meteorological…
Read the full article at Scroll.in →📄Source document: India Meteorological Department (IMD)→8 reports
The HinduIndependentCenter4 days agoThe article discusses concerns among cardamom farmers in Idukki district, India, due to insufficient monsoon rains affecting crop production. Farmers report that the lack of rainfall has hindered capsule formation on cardamom plants, leading to fears of reduced yields. According to the India Meteorological Department, Idukki has experienced a 38% rainfall deficit by June 17. Agricultural experts note that climate fluctuations, possibly linked to El Niño, are the main challenge for the cardamom sector this season.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about the impact of monsoon deficiencies on the cardamom industry, citing specific data from the India Meteorological Department and quotes from agricultural consultants and the Spices Board. There is no evident ideological framing or biased language. The报道is
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- government Spices Board
The HinduIndependentCenter5 days ago India’s rainfall deficit at 35% as monsoon progress stallsIndia is experiencing a significant rainfall deficit of 35% as of June 16, with the monsoon failing to make progress in key regions such as Maharashtra, the Konkan coast, and parts of central India. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most regions except northwest India are receiving less rain than normal, with central India facing a 63% deficit. The situation is being analyzed in the context of a potential 'Super El Niño' year, though historical data does not show a clear pattern of early-season rainfall deficits during previous El Niño events.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual meteorological data without overtly favoring any political stance. It discusses rainfall patterns and their implications in a neutral tone, citing official sources like the India Meteorological Department. There is no indication of ideological framing or biased language.
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Scroll.inIndependentCenter5 days agoThe Indian meteorological department has reported a delayed onset of the southwest monsoon across several regions, leading to concerns over water scarcity and rising temperatures. The delay is attributed to the influence of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific and reduced monsoon rainfall in India. Data indicates that the monsoon has advanced more slowly than usual, with some areas experiencing a significant rainfall deficit compared to historical averages.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information regarding weather patterns, monsoon delays, and the impact of El Niño without overtly favoring any political stance. It cites official sources such as the India Meteorological Department and reports on rainfall deficits based on data, maintaining a neutral,报道
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department
India TodayIndependentCenter5 days agoIndia's southwest monsoon has seen a significant slowdown, with rainfall deficits reaching nearly 64% compared to the normal amount for the period between June 4 and June 15. The monsoon has been delayed in arriving in Mumbai, with expectations of further delays. Weather agencies report weakened monsoon conditions over Maharashtra and Gujarat, with widespread rainfall potentially not occurring until late June. The weakening monsoon is linked to the influence of a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual data regarding the monsoon delay and rainfall deficit without apparent ideological framing. It cites the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and discusses scientific factors like El Niño, maintaining a neutral tone focused on weather patterns and their impacts.
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department (IMD)
The HinduIndependentCenter7 days ago Monsoon activity remains low in Andhra Pradesh due to El Niño conditionsThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Amaravati predicts light rainfall in isolated areas of three regions in South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema over the next week. Thunderstorms are expected to persist across the state during this period.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on meteorological forecasts without taking a stance or showing bias toward any political entity, ideology, or outcome. It presents factual information based on official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department.
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Hindustan TimesIndependentCenter8 days agoThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, warning that this climate phenomenon is likely to intensify during the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season and potentially reduce rainfall in India. The IMD noted that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have exceeded the El Niño threshold, and atmospheric conditions are aligning with the warming ocean waters. This follows similar observations by the Japan Meteorological Agency earlier in the week.
Bias read (Center): The article presents a factual report on meteorological developments without overtly favoring any political stance. It focuses on scientific observations and warnings from the India Meteorological Department, providing balanced information without editorializing or emphasizing particular ideological
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- government Japan Meteorological Agency
Scroll.inIndependentCenter9 days ago Interview: How will El Niño affect the monsoon in India?The article discusses the potential impact of an upcoming El Niño event on India's monsoon season. It reports that the India Meteorological Department has lowered its monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average due to the influence of El Niño, which is expected to bring weaker than usual monsoons. The article explains what El Niño is, referencing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's description of the phenomenon, and outlines typical effects such as increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual explanation of El Niño and its potential impact on the Indian monsoon without showing clear bias. It cites the India Meteorological Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as official sources, presenting information objectively without overt褒
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department
- government National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Hindustan TimesIndependentCenter9 days ago Monsoon tracker: When will rains advance further into MaharashtraThe Southwest monsoon arrived in Maharashtra on June 6, as reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), though it has since slowed down. The monsoon had a delayed onset in Kerala.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual report on the monsoon's arrival and movement without any apparent ideological framing or biased language. It cites the India Meteorological Department (IMD) as an official source and presents the information neutrally.
Official sources cited
- government India Meteorological Department
India