Prognoza pogody na poniedziałek
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Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej przygotował eksperymentalną prognozę pogody na lipiec, sierpień, wrzesień i październik. Dowiedz się, jaką aurę przyniosą według synoptyków lato i pierwsze tygodnie jesieni. 21 czerwca rozpocznie się kalendarzowe lato. Jakiej temperatury i jakich sum opadów możemy się spodziewać? Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej ( IMGW ) opracował eksperymentalną, czteromiesięczną prognozę pogody, która obejmuje większość lata, a także początek kalendarzowej jesieni.
Według ekspertów w lipcu temperatura na południu kraju będzie kształtować się powyżej normy wieloletniej z lat 1991-2020. W pozostałych rejonach ma być typowa dla tego miesiąca. Jeżeli chodzi o opady, to nie powinny one odbiegać od średnich miesięcznych sum z tego okresu.
Prognoza średniej miesięcznej temperatury powietrza i miesięcznej sumy opadów atmosferycznych dla wybranych miast w Polsce dla lipca 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Norma średniej temperatury powietrza i sumy opadów atmosferycznych z lat 1991-2020 dla wybranych miast w Polsce wraz z prognozą dla lipca 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Prognoza długoterminowa na sierpień
Jak prognozuje IMGW, w sierpniu temperatura ma być wyższa niż zazwyczaj w całej Polsce. Podobnie jak w lipcu opady mają kształtować się w normie.
Prognoza średniej miesięcznej temperatury powietrza i miesięcznej sumy opadów atmosferycznych dla wybranych miast w Polsce dla sierpnia 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Norma średniej temperatury powietrza i sumy opadów atmosferycznych z lat 1991-2020 dla wybranych miast w Polsce wraz z prognozą dla sierpnia 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Prognoza długoterminowa na wrzesień
Cieplejszy niż zazwyczaj w całym kraju ma być także wrzesień. Podobnie jak w poprzednich miesiącach opady nie powinny odbiegać od normy z wielolecia.
Prognoza średniej miesięcznej temperatury powietrza i miesięcznej sumy opadów atmosferycznych dla wybranych miast w Polsce dla września 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Prognoza średniej miesięcznej temperatury powietrza i miesięcznej sumy opadów atmosferycznych dla wybranych miast w Polsce dla września 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Prognoza długoterminowa na październik
Zgodnie z prognozami tegoroczny październik ma przynieść typową dla początku jesieni aurę. Według synoptyków IMGW nie będzie odbiegać od normy zarówno pod względem temperatury, jak i sum opadów.
Prognoza średniej miesięcznej temperatury powietrza i miesięcznej sumy opadów atmosferycznych dla wybranych miast w Polsce dla października 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Norma średniej temperatury powietrza i sumy opadów atmosferycznych z lat 1991-2020 dla wybranych miast w Polsce wraz z prognozą dla października 2026
Źródło zdjęcia: CMM IMGW
Co oznaczają pojęcia "powyżej normy", "poniżej normy" i "w normie"
W IMGW-PIB oraz w innych ośrodkach meteorologicznych na całym świecie średnią miesięczną temperaturę bądź sumę opadów dla danego miesiąca prognozuje się w odniesieniu do tak zwanej normy z wielolecia. Obecnie jako odniesienie wykorzystywane są wartości z okresu 1991-2020.
Wartości średniej miesięcznej temperatury lub miesięcznej sumy opadów z tego okresu sortowane są od najniższej do najwyższej. 10 najniższych wartości wyznacza temperaturę lub opady w klasie "poniżej normy", 10 środkowych "w normie", a 10 najwyższych - "powyżej normy".
W przypadku klasy "powyżej normy" możemy zakładać, że miesiąc będzie cieplejszy lub bardziej mokry od co najmniej kilkudziesięciu obserwowanych tych samych miesięcy w latach 1991-2020. W przypadku określenia "poniżej normy" miesiąc będzie chłodniejszy lub suchszy, natomiast "w normie", czyli podobny do średnich 10 miesięcy z okresu porównawczego.
Gdy przewidywana jest średnia temperatura/suma opadów:
powyżej normy - można zakładać, że prognozowany miesiąc będzie cieplejszy bądź bardziej mokry od co najmniej 20 obserwowanych, tych samych miesięcy w latach 1991-2020;
poniżej normy - można zakładać, że prognozowany miesiąc będzie chłodniejszy/bardziej suchy od co najmniej 20 obserwowanych, tych samych miesięcy w latach 1991-2020;
w normie - można zakładać, że prognozowany miesiąc będzie podobny do typowych 10 obserwowanych, tych samych miesięcy w latach 1991-2020.
Eksperci z IMGW wskazali, że prognozowana średnia temperatura odnosi się do średniej temperatury całego miesiąca, notowanej zarówno za dnia, jak i w nocy. Prognozowana suma opadów odnosi się do sumy opadów ze wszystkich dni w miesiącu. W prognozach nie jest określany rodzaj opadu (śnieg czy deszcz itp.).
Co ze sprawdzalnością prognoz długoterminowych
IMGW wyjaśnia, że pomimo coraz większej mocy obliczeniowej superkomputerów i szerokiej wiedzy o procesach pogodowych wciąż nie można uniknąć błędów i różnic w prognozach na tak długi okres w przyszłości. Rozbieżności wynikają zarówno z ryzyka wystąpienia nagłych, często lokalnych zjawisk, które mogą zaburzyć prognozowane procesy pogodowe, jak i z…
Read the full article at TVN24 →📄Source document: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
40 reports
TVN24IndependentCenter2 days ago A heat wave has not spared Germany.In Germany, temperatures have reached up to 38°C on Friday, with warnings issued by the German Weather Service (DWD) for extreme heat in regions including North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, and Lower Saxony. The western and southern parts of the country experienced the highest temperatures, while areas along the Baltic Sea remained cooler, with temperatures not exceeding 30°C. Thunderstorms, heavy rain, strong winds, and hail were also reported. Forecasters predict continued hot weather over the weekend, with potential thunderstorms in some areas.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on meteorological conditions without taking a stance or showing bias. It provides factual information about temperature forecasts, weather warnings, and regional variations in weather patterns. There is no indication of ideological framing or selective emphasis.
Official sources cited
- government German Weather Service (DWD)
- press release Tagesschau
Polsat NewsIndependentCenter2 days ago Heat and thunderstorms will fall on Poland.Poland is experiencing high temperatures and thunderstorms, with heat warnings issued for several regions. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has predicted temperatures reaching up to 32°C in parts of western Poland, accompanied by thunderstorms. Heat alerts of varying levels have been issued across multiple voivodeships.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather conditions and official warnings without taking a stance or using biased language. It reports on meteorological forecasts and heat alerts issued by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), presenting the data neutrally.
Official sources cited
- government Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)
RzeczpospolitaIndependentCenter2 days ago Extreme weather over the weekend, up to 35 degrees Celsius and a Level II alert for six provinces.The article reports on extreme weather conditions expected over the weekend, with temperatures reaching up to 35 degrees Celsius and level two alerts issued for six voivodeships. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management explains that northern Europe is affected by lows over northwest Russia, Iceland, and the Norwegian Sea, while Poland is under the influence of a weak high-pressure system moving from the Alps toward Podlaskie. A shallow low-pressure area associated with the Icelandic and Norwegian Sea low will gradually move eastward over Poland. Initially, polar maritime air will be
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual weather forecast without any political commentary, framing, or bias. It focuses solely on meteorological data and does not engage with political issues.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej
TVN24IndependentCenter2 days ago Lessons cut short, trains cancelled.Extreme heat has hit France, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some areas. The French Meteorological Service has issued warnings across 26 departments. High temperatures have led to the cancellation of 71 train services by the national railway company SNCF to prevent potential air conditioning failures. The heatwave also affected Spain, where thousands of lightning strikes were recorded.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on environmental conditions and their impact on infrastructure without taking a stance or showing bias toward any political perspective. It presents factual information about temperature records, weather warnings, and transportation disruptions caused by extreme heat.
Official sources cited
- organisation Reuters
- organisation PAP/EPA/GUILLAUME HORCAJUELO
- organisation Météo-France
Polsat NewsIndependentCenter3 days ago In the shadow of the heat, another threat is looming.Polsat News reports on an upcoming heatwave in Poland, with temperatures expected to rise significantly, particularly in western regions. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has issued warnings about dangerous weather conditions, including thunderstorms, which are expected to increase over the weekend. The article highlights the severity of the situation, noting that this will be the hottest period so far this year.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather forecasts and warnings without taking a political stance. It focuses on meteorological data and public safety alerts, avoiding any ideological framing or biased language.
Official sources cited
- government Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter4 days ago When does the heat wave peak? And what about the storms? Five-day weather forecastThe article provides a five-day weather forecast for Poland, predicting record-high temperatures this year. It mentions that temperatures will exceed 30°C in parts of Poland before the weekend, with the peak heatwave occurring on Saturday. The text explains the atmospheric conditions contributing to the heatwave, including changes in air circulation and the movement of high-pressure systems.
Bias read (Center): The article is purely meteorological and does not present any political stance, opinion, or framing that favors one side over another. It focuses solely on weather patterns and forecasts without commentary or bias.
Polsat NewsIndependentCenter4 days ago There's no doubt about it, the heat will sweep Poland from the Oder to the Bug.The article reports on an upcoming heatwave in Poland, with the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) planning to issue second-level weather warnings starting Friday. The heatwave is expected to affect western regions first, with temperatures reaching up to 31°C in some areas. The article mentions that this will be the first significant heatwave of the year and highlights the planned warnings across multiple voivodeships.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather forecasts and official warnings issued by the IMGW without any apparent ideological framing or bias. It focuses on meteorological data and does not take a stance on political issues.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
Polsat NewsIndependentCenter5 days ago The cold is evaporating, the heat wave is flowing like never before this year.The article reports on an upcoming heatwave in Poland, noting that current weather conditions are less than ideal with clouds, rain, and thunderstorms. However, it states that temperatures will rise significantly in the coming days, reaching up to 28°C in parts of southern and western Poland by Thursday. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) is cited as the source of the forecast.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a straightforward weather forecast without any overt ideological framing, emphasis, or biased language. It cites official meteorological sources and presents the information neutrally.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter6 days ago Such will be the summer and the beginning of autumn. Experimental forecast by IMGWThe Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has released an experimental four-month weather forecast covering July, August, September, and October. According to the forecast, temperatures in July will be above average in southern Poland, while other regions will experience typical conditions. Precipitation levels are expected to remain close to historical averages. In August, temperatures across the country are predicted to be higher than usual, with precipitation remaining within normal ranges.
Bias read (Center): The article presents a factual summary of an official weather forecast without any apparent ideological framing, bias, or subjective interpretation. It focuses solely on meteorological data provided by the IMGW, which is a neutral scientific institution.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter6 days ago It will thunder and blow strongly. Here is the warning from IMGWThe Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has issued first-level weather warnings for Monday across several regions of Poland. The warnings include thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and strong winds. Specific areas affected by thunderstorms include parts of West Pomeranian, Pomorskie, Greater Poland, Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Warmian-Masurian, Podlaskie, and Mazovian provinces. Strong wind alerts apply to parts of West Pomeranian, including Gryfino, Kolobrzeg, Koszalin, and Kos. The warnings remain in effect until 11 PM on Monday.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather warnings issued by an official source without any ideological framing or bias. It focuses solely on meteorological data and does not involve political commentary or interpretation.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter6 days ago Grad and 'cattle exchange'. Stormy SundayThe article reports on severe weather conditions across Poland over the weekend, including thunderstorms, heavy rain, strong winds, and hail. It mentions specific regions affected, such as the Łódź Voivodeship, Mazovia, Lublin Voivodeship, and Lesser Poland. The text includes images and videos from storm observers and highlights the occurrence of mammatus clouds, which resemble cow udders, over the village of Piątek in the Łódź region.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather events without any ideological framing, opinion, or biased language. It focuses on meteorological phenomena and their impact, using neutral descriptions and citing observational sources.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej
RzeczpospolitaIndependentCenter6 days ago IMGW severe alert: Thunderstorms will hit 11 provinces. Showers, hail and strong winds are comingThe Polish meteorological service (IMGW) has issued level I warnings for thunderstorms across 11 voivodeships, along with alerts for heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms in two regions. Hydrological level I alerts are also in effect for northern areas, and wind alerts will take effect from Monday morning.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on weather-related alerts issued by an official meteorological authority without any apparent ideological framing, emphasis, or selective sourcing. The content is purely informational and does not present a political perspective.
TVN24IndependentCenter7 days ago 16-day weather forecast: a crazy temperature jump is comingA heatwave originating from Africa is expected to reach Poland soon. The article provides a 16-day weather forecast created by meteorologist and presenter Tomasz Wasilewski from tvnmeteo.pl.
Bias read (Center): The article discusses an upcoming weather event without taking a stance or showing bias. It presents a forecast without editorializing or emphasizing any particular political angle.
Wirtualna Polska (WP)IndependentCenter7 days ago After the cold spell, the weather will turn. It will become truly hotPoland is expected to experience a significant heatwave over the upcoming weekend, with temperatures potentially reaching 35°C in areas such as Wrocław, Zielona Góra, and Opola. The warming trend will begin gradually, starting from relatively cooler and cloudy conditions on Monday as warm air from southern and western Europe moves into the country.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a straightforward weather forecast without any overt ideological framing, emphasis, or biased language. It focuses solely on meteorological data and does not engage with politically sensitive topics.
TVN24IndependentCenter7 days ago IMGW warnings. More than half of the country under alertsThe Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has issued first-level weather alerts across more than half of Poland. The warnings include heavy rain with thunderstorms and strong winds, affecting several regions including West Pomeranian and Pomorskie voivodeships. The alerts are expected to remain in effect until 8 PM on Sunday.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather alerts issued by an official institution without any apparent ideological framing or bias. It focuses solely on the meteorological data and does not involve political commentary or interpretation.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter7 days ago Down Sabina, rain and storm, radar and rainfall map.The article discusses the weather forecast for Poland, focusing on rain and thunderstorms brought by the low-pressure system named Sabina. It mentions that Saturday night will see rain and fading thunderstorms in parts of the country, with similar conditions expected on Sunday. The article includes information from the meteorological service (IMGW) and references a video source (Ventusky.com). Synoptics describe the movement of precipitation zones using maps and radars.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual weather report without any political commentary, framing, or bias. It focuses solely on meteorological data and does not involve political actors, policies, or ideological perspectives.
Official sources cited
- government IMGW
- organisation Ventusky.com
TVN24IndependentCenter8 days ago Storms and heavy rain, IMGW warns.The article reports on severe weather conditions expected across many regions of Poland over the weekend, with the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) issuing first-level weather warnings. The warnings include thunderstorms, heavy rainfall up to 30 liters per square meter, and wind gusts up to 60 km/h in 11 voivodeships. The warnings are scheduled to take effect at noon on Saturday and end at 11 PM the same day.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather forecasts without any political commentary, framing, or bias. It focuses solely on the meteorological data provided by the IMGW and does not present any ideological perspective.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)
TVN24IndependentCenter9 days ago Sabina's got a cold side, and then we're gonna have a change.The article discusses upcoming weather conditions, noting continued rainfall and thunderstorms in the coming days with temperatures sometimes dropping below 15°C. It asks when warmer weather with temperatures exceeding 20°C might occur.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a neutral weather forecast without any political commentary, framing, or bias. The content focuses solely on meteorological information and does not engage with politically charged topics.
TVN24IndependentCenter9 days ago Where's the storm?On Friday, June 12, thunderstorms occurred in parts of Poland, accompanied by rain and strong winds. The article directs readers to tvnmeteo.pl for real-time weather updates.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on weather conditions without any political commentary, framing, or bias. It provides factual information about thunderstorms and directs readers to an external source for updates.
TVN24IndependentCenter9 days ago This is not the end of the storms. Alarms may appear hereThe Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) has issued first-level weather alerts across more than half of Poland. The warnings include heavy rain with thunderstorms and strong winds, affecting several counties in the West Pomeranian and Pomorskie voivodeships, as well as parts of Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie regions. The alerts are in effect until 8 PM on Sunday.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about weather alerts issued by an official source without any apparent ideological framing or bias. It focuses solely on the meteorological data and does not take a stance on related political issues.
Official sources cited
- government Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (IMGW)