Fierce marine heat waves like this one in 2019 can wreak havoc on sea life off the North American Pacific Coast, with temperatures about 4 to 6 F (2 to 3 C) above normal. Credit: Dillon Amaya
It's official: El Niño is back . By late fall 2026, forecast models give a 2-in-3 chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño affecting the weather, climate and ocean temperatures across the planet.
El Niño is the climate system's biggest player and one side of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO . It's the heads to La Niña's tails.
During El Niño, a swath of ocean stretching 6,000 miles (10,000 kilometers) westward off the coast of Ecuador warms for months on end, typically by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 2 degrees Celsius). A few degrees may not seem like much, but in that part of the world, it's more than enough to completely reorganize wind, rainfall and temperature patterns all over the planet.
I'm a climate scientist who studies the oceans. With an El Niño expected to strengthen through the summer and fall , water temperatures will heat up even more. It's time to start preparing.
How does El Niño affect the planet?
No two El Niño events are exactly alike, though we've seen enough of them that forecasters have a pretty good idea of what's likely to happen .
People tend to focus on El Niño's impact on land, justifiably. The warm water affects air currents that leave areas wetter or drier than usual. It can ramp up storms in some areas, like the southern U.S., while tending to tamp down Atlantic hurricane activity .
El Niño can also wreak havoc on the many marine ecosystems that support the world's fishing industries, including coral reefs and seagrass meadows .
Specifically, El Niño tends to trigger intense and widespread periods of extreme ocean warming known as marine heat waves.
Global ocean temperatures are already near record highs , so El Niño-induced marine heat waves could push many sensitive fisheries to a breaking point.
What is a marine heat wave?
A marine heat wave is just that: a "wave" of extreme heat in the ocean, not dissimilar to an atmospheric heat wave on land.
At their smallest, marine heat waves can inundate local bays and coves with hotter-than-normal water for a few days or weeks. At their largest, marine heat waves like the Northeast Pacific Warm Blob of 2013–2014 can grow to gargantuan proportions, with regions three times the size of Texas experiencing ocean temperatures 4 to 6 F (2 to 3 C) above average for months or even years.
Warm water might not seem like a big deal, especially to surfers hoping to leave their wetsuits at home. But for many marine organisms that are highly adapted to specific water temperatures, marine heat waves can make living in the ocean feel like running a marathon .
Marine heat wave forecasts from May 2026 show the probability, left, based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, and magnitude, right, of marine heat waves expected in 2026 and early 2027. Marine heat waves were already developing off the Pacific Coasts of North, Central and South America as of June 2026. Credit: NOAA
For example, some fish increase their metabolism in warm waters so much that they burn energy faster than they can eat, and they can die. Pacific cod declined by 70% in the Gulf of Alaska in response to a marine heat wave. Other impacts include bleached corals, widespread harmful algal blooms, decimated seaweeds and increased marine mammal strandings. All told, billions of U.S. dollars are lost to marine heat waves each year.
Marine heat waves flare up for a variety of reasons . Sometimes, ocean currents shift warm water around. Sometimes, surface winds are weaker than normal, leading to less evaporation over the ocean and warmer waters. Sometimes, cloudy places just aren't as cloudy for a few months, which lets more sunlight in and heats up the ocean. Sometimes, both weaker winds and fewer clouds happen at the same time, producing record-breaking marine heat waves .
How does El Niño fit in?
In the climate system, El Niño is king. When it dons its fiery crown, the entire planet takes notice, and the oceans are no exception. But the likelihood of increased marine heat wave activity during El Niño depends on where you are.
Along the U.S. West Coast during El Niño, surface winds that normally blow from the north tend to subside. This weakens evaporation and slows upwelling of colder, deeper water. That increases the chances of coastal marine heat waves. California waters are already extremely warm . El Niño could make things even hotter for longer.
Peruvian fishers have for centuries weathered periods of extreme ocean warming that drive fish away. It wasn't until the 1920s that scientists realized these South American marine heat waves were related to the Pacific-wide ENSO.
In the Bay of Bengal east of India, interactions between El Niño and a tropical airflow pattern known as the Walker Circulation elevate the risk for marine heat waves.
Seafloor heat w…
Read the full article at Phys.org →📄Source document: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)→20 reports
tportalIndependentCenter3 days agoThe article discusses the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon across Europe, including extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. It notes that the last El Niño event contributed to record-breaking global temperatures and severe weather events worldwide. Meteorological forecasts suggest that 2026 could be among the hottest years on record. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts above-average temperatures during summer and early autumn in much of Europe. Experts warn that reduced rainfall due to El Niño could threaten energy production,
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific information and expert warnings without overtly favoring any political perspective. It focuses on environmental and meteorological phenomena with neutral language and does not include explicit ideological commentary.
UN NewsState / PublicCenter3 days agoThe article discusses the intensifying impact of climate change, particularly highlighting the effects of El Niño on vulnerable regions such as Africa. It cites data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), noting that extreme weather events affected millions of people and caused thousands of deaths in 2025. The article mentions specific examples like severe flooding in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as well as ongoing droughts in East Africa. It also references environmental changes such as accelerated glacier retreat, rising sea levels, and reduced ice coverage on
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information based on reports from the World Meteorological Organization without apparent ideological framing. It focuses on scientific data and observed climate impacts without taking a stance on policy or politics.
Official sources cited
- organisation State of the Climate in Africa 2025 report
- organisation World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
India TodayIndependentCenter4 days agoEl Niño conditions are forming in the tropical Pacific, with projections suggesting the phenomenon could last until 2027. This could lead to significant disruptions in weather patterns globally, including impacts on India's monsoon. Climate models predict sea surface temperatures in key regions could rise by more than 2°C, which would make this one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific forecasts and data without overtly favoring any particular perspective. It reports on climate models and definitions provided by climate scientists, maintaining a neutral tone throughout.
Official sources cited
- study North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
RNZ (Radio New Zealand)State / PublicCenter5 days agoRNZ reports that an El Niño event has been officially declared in the Pacific, with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) confirming that sea surface temperatures and Southern Oscillation Index values meet the criteria for El Niño. This is expected to bring drier-than-usual conditions to Western Pacific countries, increasing the risk of drought, while Central and Eastern Pacific nations may see above-average rainfall. Earth Sciences New Zealand's chief forecaster warns that this could be one of the strongest El Niño events recorded.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information about the El Niño phenomenon, citing official sources like the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and Earth Sciences New Zealand. It provides balanced descriptions of potential impacts across different regions without taking a立场
Official sources cited
- organisation Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
- organisation Earth Sciences New Zealand
RTÉ NewsState / PublicCenter5 days agoAustralia's Bureau of Meteorology has reported the formation of an El Niño weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, which could intensify into one of the strongest events in seven decades. The phenomenon is expected to bring heavy rains to the Americas and hot, dry conditions to Asia, potentially disrupting crop planting and affecting global food supplies. Scientists note that climate change may amplify the impacts of this El Niño.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information about meteorological forecasts and scientific assessments without overtly favoring any political perspective. It reports on the potential impact of El Niño on agriculture and weather patterns globally but does not include biased language, selective sourcing,或
Official sources cited
- government Bureau of Meteorology Statement
RTP NotíciasState / PublicCenter5 days agoThe European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has warned that a strong 'El Niño' phenomenon is likely to occur between 2026 and 2027, potentially reaching unprecedented intensity. The report highlights potential impacts on climate patterns, food security, population displacement, and humanitarian risks. The JRC notes that El Niño is a natural climatic event characterized by unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean, which can affect rainfall, temperature, droughts, and storms globally. The report emphasizes the complex and interconnected risks posed by El Niño, including extreme heat, drys,
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific findings from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre regarding the anticipated strength of the El Niño phenomenon and its potential global effects. It does not exhibit overt political bias, framing, or ideological slant. The content focuses on scientific data
Official sources cited
- government Relatório do Centro Comum de Investigação (JRC)
Phys.orgIndependentCenter6 days agoThe article discusses the return of El Niño, a significant climate phenomenon characterized by warming ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. Scientists predict a strong-to-very-strong El Niño by late 2026, which could disrupt global weather patterns, ocean temperatures, and ecosystems. The article highlights potential impacts on marine life, including risks to fish populations and coral reefs due to rising ocean temperatures.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual overview of El Niño, explaining its scientific mechanisms and potential environmental consequences without overtly favoring any political stance. It cites general scientific consensus and uses neutral language throughout.
Official sources cited
- study Scientific consensus on El Niño
- study Climate models predicting El Niño strength
Deutsche Welle (Deutsch)State / PublicCenter8 days agoScientists warn that this year's El Niño phenomenon could be the strongest in 140 years, potentially leading to droughts, floods, and heat extremes. The article discusses the expected impacts and ways to prepare for them.
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific warnings about an extreme El Niño event without taking a stance or showing bias toward any political perspective. It focuses on potential environmental impacts and preparedness, which are factual and non-partisan.
Bloomberg AdriaIndependentCenter8 days agoThe article discusses the development of a 'super El Niño' phenomenon, which refers to an exceptionally strong warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Bias read (Center): The article does not present any political stance or biased language. It focuses on a meteorological event without assigning blame or taking a position.
RÚV FréttirState / PublicCenter8 days agoThe article discusses the development of an El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to be particularly strong this year. It notes that El Niño conditions are forming in the Pacific Ocean according to new analysis by the National Weather Service. The phenomenon could have significant effects on global temperatures, precipitation patterns, and weather extremes. Scientists from the National Weather Service explain how El Niño works, including changes in wind patterns and ocean temperatures.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual overview of the El Niño phenomenon without taking a political stance. It includes quotes from scientists and explains the meteorological processes involved, presenting information neutrally.
Official sources cited
- government Alþjóðaveðurfræðistofnunin
Phys.orgIndependentCenter8 days ago El Niño arrives and could rank among strongest events since 1950El Niño has arrived and is expected to intensify through the end of the year, potentially becoming one of the strongest events since 1950. Scientists note that El Niño typically brings droughts, floods, and extreme weather patterns globally. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November–January.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual information about El Niño based on statements from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It does not exhibit overtly biased language, one-sided sourcing, or omissions of context. The tone remains neutral, focusing on scientific predictions and
OpenIndependentCenter9 days agoThe U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has confirmed the onset of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. According to Noaa, El Niño could strengthen over the next few months, reaching moderate or strong intensity by autumn, with a peak expected during the winter of 2026. The event carries a 63% chance of exceeding a threshold of 2.0°C in sea surface temperatures, which would classify it as 'very strong.' El Niño typically influences global weather patterns, including increased storm activity,
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual overview of the scientific confirmation of El Niño by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa). It includes quotes from officials and describes potential environmental impacts without taking a stance or using biased language.
Il Fatto QuotidianoIndependentCenter9 days agoThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has confirmed that El Niño has begun in the tropical Pacific. The agency predicts that the phenomenon will intensify, potentially reaching a 'super' level by autumn. If sea surface temperatures rise by 2.0 degrees Celsius in the monitored region, it would qualify as a 'Super Niño,' an event that occurs roughly every 15 years and has significant global impacts. El Niño typically causes warming of 0.5 to 3 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern Pacific, leading to warmer, drier winters in northern parts of the United States and storm
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual report on the development of El Niño without taking a stance or showing bias toward any political perspective. It focuses on scientific predictions and explanations from the Noaa, presenting information objectively.
iDNES.czParty-alignedCenter9 days agoMeteorologists have officially confirmed the onset of El Niño, which will affect weather patterns worldwide.
Bias read (Center): The article reports on a meteorological phenomenon (El Niño), which is a scientific event with no inherent political bias. The content is factual and does not present any ideological framing or slant.
Gulf NewsParty-aligned🔒Center9 days agoThe article discusses the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It outlines potential impacts of El Niño on global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others.
Bias read (Center): The article provides general information about El Niño without taking a stance or showing bias toward any particular political ideology. The focus is on scientific and environmental aspects rather than political implications.
Associated PressIndependentCenter10 days agoEl Niño has arrived, and scientists are warning that it could have significant and potentially damaging effects, including extreme heat, flooding, droughts, and wildfires.
Bias read (Center): The article does not present any political stance or ideological framing. It reports on a scientific phenomenon and its potential impacts without taking sides or using biased language.
Japan TodayIndependentCenter10 days agoThe European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has increased its confidence that a very strong El Niño event could develop later this year. Scientists note that the likelihood of El Niño conditions forming during the northern hemisphere summer is high, with some forecasts suggesting it could be a record-breaking event. El Niño refers to a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which influences global weather patterns. According to Copernicus, the June outlook reinforces the possibility of a major
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific findings without overtly biased language or framing. It reports on an international climate monitoring service's assessment of potential weather patterns, using neutral terms and citing official sources.
Official sources cited
- government Copernicus Climate Change Service
IltalehtiParty-alignedCenter11 days agoThe article reports that El Niño conditions are likely to be declared soon, based on meteorological models. The phenomenon could be exceptionally strong this year, potentially leading to extreme weather events globally. According to researcher Mika Rantanen from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, some models predict a 'super-El Niño,' while others do not reach that level. The article explains the criteria for defining El Niño and provides historical context.
Bias read (Center): The article presents scientific findings and expert opinions without overt ideological framing. It focuses on meteorological data and historical patterns, avoiding political commentary or biased language.
Official sources cited
- organisation Ilmatieteen laitoksen tutkija Mika Rantanen
- organisation Forecan sääblogi
Deutsche Welle (English)State / PublicCenter11 days ago The strongest El Nino in more than a century may be comingA potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean could reshape global weather patterns. Experts suggest this could be the strongest El Niño event in 140 years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates El Niño conditions emerging soon and lasting through winter. The phenomenon may lead to droughts, floods, heatwaves, and disruptions to food and water supplies. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called it an urgent climate warning.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual overview of the scientific consensus regarding the development of a strong El Niño event. It includes quotes from experts and officials without overtly favoring any particular perspective. The content focuses on meteorological data and potential impacts rather than any
Deutsche Welle (English)State / PublicCenter12 days ago The most powerful El Nino in a century could be on its wayA potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean could reshape global weather patterns. Experts suggest this could be among the strongest El Niño events on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates El Niño conditions emerging soon and continuing through winter. The phenomenon may lead to droughts, floods, heatwaves, and disruptions to food and water supplies. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called it an urgent climate warning.
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual overview of the scientific consensus regarding the development of a strong El Niño event. It includes quotes from experts and officials without overtly favoring any particular perspective. The content focuses on meteorological data and potential global impacts rather 2
Official sources cited
- study Paul Roundy
- organisation World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
- organisation United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
