O secretário-executivo do Ministério da Fazenda , Rogério Ceron, afirmou que o Brasil vai encerrar medidas de subsídios aos preços de combustíveis, incluindo diesel e gasolina, caso a cotação do barril de petróleo se estabilize em torno de US$ 80 (R$ 405,83), após o acordo temporário de paz entre EUA e Irã .
O contrato de agosto do barril Brent, referência mundial, oscilava na casa de US$ 80 nesta quarta-feira (17) e chegou a cair a US$ 77,76 (R$ 394,47), valor mais baixo desde 2 de março, quando foi cotado a US$ 75,75, mas era a primeira sessão depois da eclosão do conflito no Oriente Médio em 28 de fevereiro.
Em entrevista à Reuters na terça-feira (16), Ceron afirmou que um encerramento da guerra também tende a melhorar projeções de mercado para a inflação e retirar pressão sobre os juros futuros, abrindo espaço para o Banco Central aprofundar a flexibilização da política monetária, além de reduzir custos da dívida pública.
O secretário disse que os próximos 30 dias serão de observação quanto à consolidação deste cenário, apontando a necessidade de cautela diante de uma guerra que desencadeou reações voláteis não apenas do preço do petróleo, mas de variáveis como juros e câmbio.
"Se estabilizar (em torno de US$ 80 o barril), realmente não há necessidade de continuidade das medidas. A gente vai retirar por prudência, com toda certeza", afirmou o secretário.
Desde a eclosão da guerra promovida por Estados Unidos e Israel contra o Irã , no final de fevereiro, o governo anunciou uma série de medidas emergenciais para amortecer os efeitos da alta da cotação internacional do petróleo, com reduções tributárias ou subvenções sobre diesel, gasolina, querosene de aviação e gás de cozinha .
De maneira geral, as medidas foram editadas com vigência de dois meses, e algumas delas já foram prorrogadas . A maior parte das iniciativas tem validade até julho, prazo que Ceron afirmou ser suficiente para avaliar os efeitos do esperado fim da guerra.
"Tem dois cenários: tentar antecipar o fim das medidas ou deixar elas se extinguirem nos seus prazos de validade", disse.
O secretário ressaltou que embora o patamar de US$ 80 o barril represente uma alta ante cotações do petróleo Brent de US$ 70 vistas no início do ano, a moeda brasileira sofreu apreciação de lá para cá, com o dólar passando de R$ 5,20 para cerca de R$ 5,00, ajudando a contrabalançar parte da pressão inflacionária com o insumo energético mais caro .
MEDIDAS DE ESTÍMULO
Após economistas terem reduzido expressivamente seus cálculos sobre o tamanho do corte de juros pelo BC neste ano diante do quadro mais desafiador para a inflação, Ceron afirmou que as projeções para o IPCA foram fundamentalmente afetadas pela guerra no Irã , refutando que as medidas de estímulo implementadas pelo governo do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tenham sido decisivas nesse sentido.
"Se você excluir o impacto da guerra, você não tem um cenário de um estresse inflacionário relevante", analisou.
Com a esperada acomodação do petróleo, a expectativa é de reversão rápida das projeções de mercado para a inflação que haviam se distanciado da meta de 3%, inclusive para horizontes mais longos, o que permitirá à "política monetária ter um pouco mais de grau de liberdade", completou ele. Nesta quarta, o Copom (Comitê de Política Monetária) deve anunciar corte de 0,25 ponto percentual na taxa de juros, que hoje está em 14,5%.
Desde o início do mês, bancos têm estimado o impacto conjunto das novas medidas de estímulo anunciadas pelo governo em meio à estratégia de Lula rumo à reeleição em outubro. As projeções apontam para impulso superior a R$ 200 bilhões este ano, majoritariamente via subsídios, garantias e aportes fora do resultado primário, mas com efeito de pressão sobre a já elevada e crescente dívida pública.
"Se fosse verdade que tivesse um estímulo de 2% do PIB... isso colocaria atividade econômica próxima de (uma alta de) 3%", disse. "Não tem nenhum tipo de estímulo dessa magnitude", completou, sem precisar um número, mas destacando que indicadores econômicos recentes, como as vendas no varejo, têm mostrado "desaceleração significativa" da atividade.
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A Fazenda projeta crescimento do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) de 2,3% este ano, dentro de uma faixa de 2% a 2,5% que Ceron defendeu não impor pressões inflacionárias. O mercado vem há um mês revisando suas contas para cima, agora estimando alta de 1,96%, conforme o mais recente boletim Focus do BC.
Segundo Ceron, o debate liderado por parte do mercado tem colocado no mesmo pacote medidas distintas, ao misturar ações fiscalmente neutras, como a ampliação da isenção do IR, com outras que estimulam a atividade, embora marginalmente, e sem necessariamente pressionar a inflação.
Ele citou como exemplo as linhas de crédito subsidiado para compra de caminhões e para motoristas e entregadores de aplicativos adquirirem veículo…
Read the full article at Folha de S.Paulo →📄Source document: Banco Central do Brasil→13 reports
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter2 days agoThe US dollar opened with a slight decline on Friday following the postponement of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. At 9:17 AM, the dollar fell 0.28%, trading at R$ 5.1598. On Thursday, the dollar had risen 1.26%, reaching R$ 5.174, while the stock market dropped 0.1%, closing at 168,277 points. The movement followed monetary policy decisions by Brazil and the United States. In Brazil, the Central Bank’s COPOM cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25% annually. However, the surprise came from extending the relevant horizon for inflation convergence to the 3%
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual account of currency movements and central bank decisions without overtly favoring any political stance. It reports on economic indicators and policy changes neutrally.
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter2 days ago Bank of England communication deemed confusing creates noise and may affect real economy, say analystsAnalysts criticize the Brazilian Central Bank's (BC) communication following its decision to cut the Selic interest rate, arguing it was unclear and failed to adequately justify the move amid rising inflation. Experts suggest this confusion could affect market perception of the BC's ability to adjust monetary policy in response to economic indicators. The Copom reduced the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25% annually, marking the third consecutive cut since March.
Bias read (Center): The article presents expert opinions criticizing the Central Bank's communication without overtly favoring any political side. It reports on economic analysis and does not take a stance on the policy itself, focusing instead on the clarity of the justification provided by the Copom.
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter3 days ago Dollar opens sharply higher on Thursday after interest announcements in Brazil and the USThe US dollar opened higher against the Brazilian real on Thursday following announcements regarding interest rates in both Brazil and the United States. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, but signaled potential further increases later in the year. In Brazil, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25% annually, while remaining uncertain about future steps. At 9:12 AM, the dollar rose 0.73% to R$5.1479.
Bias read (Center): The article provides factual information about currency exchange rates and monetary policy decisions without overtly favoring any political stance. It reports on economic indicators and central bank actions in a neutral tone, presenting data and quotes without apparent bias.
CartaCapitalIndependentCenter3 days agoThe reduction of Brazil's benchmark interest rate, Selic, by 0.25 percentage points was deemed insufficient by entities such as the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) and the Unified Workers' Center (CUT). These groups argue that the cut fails to reverse the stagnation of investments and does not meet the urgent needs of the country and its people. The decision to lower Selic from 14.50% to 14.25% annually was announced by the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The CNI stated that high real interest rates continue to benefit speculative capital, making credit costs prohibt
Bias read (Center): The article presents perspectives from both industry and labor groups without overtly favoring one side. It quotes statements from the CNI and CUT, providing their arguments against the Selic rate cut but does not introduce additional commentary or framing that would indicate a clear ideological sl
Official sources cited
- organisation Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI)
- organisation Central Única dos Trabalhadores (CUT)
- government Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom)
CartaCapitalIndependentCenter3 days ago Copom's signals about the next meeting, after cutting Selic to 14.25%The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the benchmark interest rate, Selic, from 14.5% to 14.25%. The committee did not clearly indicate the direction of its next meeting, scheduled for August 4–5. In its statement, Copom mentioned uncertainties in the external environment, including the U.S.-Iran agreement and economic activity acceleration in the first quarter. It emphasized maintaining calm and caution in monetary policy due to prolonged high interest rates impacting economic activity. The committee also noted inflation data showing a slowdown in the annual 12
Bias read (Center): The article provides a factual summary of the Copom's decision and its reasoning without apparent ideological framing or biased language. It reports on economic indicators and official statements without taking a stance.
Official sources cited
- government Comunicado do Copom
- government IBGE inflation data
Gazeta do PovoIndependentCenter3 days agoThe Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to reduce the Selic rate, the basic interest rate, by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 14.25% per year. The decision was made due to inflation projections showing further deviation from the target in the relevant timeframe for monetary policy. The Central Bank emphasized caution regarding future decisions involving the Selic rate, stating that the full extent of the adjustment cycle would depend on new information to ensure inflation converges toward the target. The article also mentions the U.S. Fed,
Bias read (Center): The article presents a factual report on the Copom's decision without overtly biased language or framing. It includes direct quotes from the Central Bank and provides context about external factors like global uncertainties but does not favor any particular political or economic stance.
Official sources cited
- government Banco Central do Brasil
CartaCapitalIndependentCenter3 days ago Copom cuts Selic to 14.25%, but Brazil has the highest real interest rate in the worldThe Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to lower the benchmark interest rate, Selic, by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25% annually, marking the third consecutive reduction. Despite this cut, Brazil still has the highest real interest rate globally at 9.67%, according to monitoring by MoneYou and Lev Intelligence. This calculation considers market rates and projected inflation over the next 12 months. The country's real interest rate surpasses even Russia's (9.31%). Other countries in the top five include Turkey (5.57%), Mexico (5.1%), and South Africa.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual economic data without overtly favoring any political side. It reports on the Copom decision and provides comparative global interest rate figures without editorializing or biased language.
Official sources cited
- organisation MoneYou and Lev Intelligence Monitoring
- organisation Boletim Focus
- organisation IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística)
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter3 days ago See what the return on investments looks like after the ECB's decisionThe article discusses the impact of Brazil's Central Bank's recent decision to cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points. Analysts suggest that fixed-income investments remain attractive despite the rate cut, with high real interest rates expected due to anticipated inflation. Experts highlight the benefits of post-fixed investments, such as the Tesouro Selic 2028, which offer strong returns after considering taxes and inflation. Tax-free products like LCI and LCA are also recommended for higher returns. Prefix-fixed investments are advised only for shorter-term options.
Bias read (Center): The article provides an economic analysis without overtly favoring any political stance. It quotes financial experts and focuses on market trends and investment strategies rather than making policy judgments or taking a partisan position.
Official sources cited
- statement Marcelo Freller, C6 Bank strategist
- statement Marco Saravalle, Krivo Capital chief strategist
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter3 days ago Brazil takes world lead in real interest rates even after Selic cutThe article reports that Brazil has taken the lead in global real interest rates despite a recent cut in the Selic rate by the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The real interest rate in Brazil was calculated at 9.67% annually, based on expectations of inflation and the DI benchmark. This places Brazil ahead of Russia, which previously held the top position. The article explains the methodology used to calculate real interest rates and notes that Brazil and Russia have significantly higher rates compared to other countries analyzed.
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual economic data without overtly favoring any political perspective. It provides context on the calculation of real interest rates and compares Brazil with other countries, maintaining an objective tone throughout.
Official sources cited
- study Portal MoneYou and Lev Intelligence report
- government Banco Central's Focus bulletin
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter3 days ago BC cuts Selic by 0.25 points for the 3rd time, to 14.25% per annum, and remains undecided on futureThe Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the Selic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points for the third consecutive time, bringing it down to 14.25% per year. The decision was made unanimously by President Gabriel Galípolo and six other directors, despite a more challenging inflation environment. The committee remains uncertain about future steps, stating that the full extent of the rate-cutting cycle will depend on new information aimed at ensuring inflation converges to the target. The process of easing monetary policy began in March when Selic was at 15% per年,
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual economic developments without overtly biased language or framing. It reports on the central bank's decisions and market expectations neutrally, avoiding ideological or partisan commentary.
Folha de S.PauloIndependentCenter4 days ago Government will end subsidy to fuel veins if peter leo stays stable at $ 80, says secret riverThe Brazilian Ministry of Finance's Secretary Rogério Ceron stated that Brazil would end fuel price subsidy measures if the price of oil stabilizes around $80 per barrel, following the temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. The Brent crude oil contract was trading near $80, with prices dropping to $77.76, the lowest since March 2. Ceron noted that an end to the war could improve inflation forecasts, reduce pressure on future interest rates, and allow the Central Bank to further ease monetary policy. He emphasized caution over the next 30 days due to the volatile effects of the中东戰
Bias read (Center): The article presents a factual statement from an official source without overtly biased language or framing. It reports on economic policy decisions based on market conditions and geopolitical events, maintaining neutrality.
Official sources cited
- government Ministry of Finance
CartaCapitalIndependentCenter4 days ago Brazil will close this Wednesday with the highest real interest rate in the world, even with a cut in SelicThe article reports that Brazil will end the week with the highest real interest rate in the world, despite a planned cut in the Selic rate, currently set at 14.5% annually. Most of the financial market expects a reduction to 14.25%, marking the third consecutive decrease. The real interest rate calculation considers the 'market rate' and projected inflation over the next 12 months. If the Copom cuts by half a point, Brazil's real rate would reach 9.36%, still higher than Russia's. The article also notes that the expectation of a Selic cut has strengthened following an announced peace deal بين
Bias read (Center): The article presents factual economic data without overtly biased language or framing. It reports projections and calculations objectively, without emphasizing any particular political stance.
Official sources cited
- organisation Monitoramento das consultorias MoneYou e Lev Intelligence
CartaCapitalIndependentCenter6 days ago Financial market raises Selic's forecast to 13.75% a yearThe financial market has raised its forecast for Brazil's benchmark interest rate, the Selic, to 13.75% per year by the end of 2026, according to the latest Focus report published by the Central Bank. The report also projects a gradual reduction in the Selic rate to 12% in 2027, 10.25% in 2028, and 10% in 2029. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is set to meet this week to decide on the Selic rate, with expectations that it will remain at 14.5% during this meeting. The Selic rate has been at 15% since June 2025, the highest level in nearly 20 years, amid falling inflation but
Bias read (Center): The article presents economic forecasts and policy decisions without overtly favoring any political side. It reports on market expectations, central bank actions, and economic indicators in a neutral tone.
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