Noble, T. L. et al. The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present, and future. Rev. Geophys. 58 , e2019RG000663 (2020).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Cook, A. J. & Vaughan, D. G. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. Cryosphere 4 , 77–98 (2010).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Walker, C. C. et al. Multi-decadal collapse of East Antarctica’s Conger–Glenzer Ice Shelf. Nat. Geosci. 17 , 1240–1248 (2024).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Fox-Kemper, B. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 9 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 126 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019).
DeConto, R. M. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593 , 83–89 (2021). This study applies the MICI mechanism to project Antarctic Ice Sheet contributions to sea-level rise under Paris Agreement emissions scenarios, providing high-end estimates that have become central to planning for worst-case outcomes .
Article
ADS
PubMed
Google Scholar
Otosaka, I. N. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 15 , 1597–1616 (2023).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13 , 3–11 (1974).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Nye, J. F. The response of glaciers and ice-sheets to seasonal and climatic changes. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Math. Phys. Sci. 256 , 559–584 (1960).
ADS
MathSciNet
Google Scholar
Pattyn, F. The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling. Nat. Commun. 9 , 2728 (2018).
Article
ADS
PubMed
PubMed Central
Google Scholar
Robel, A. A., Roe, G. H. & Haseloff, M. Response of marine-terminating glaciers to forcing: time scales, sensitivities, instabilities, and stochastic dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 123 , 2205–2227 (2018). This study establishes the theoretical basis for reservoir time as a fundamental timescale governing how marine-terminating glaciers respond to external forcing, a concept this paper demonstrates is a robust and emergent feature across ISMIP6 models .
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Seroussi, H. et al. ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. Cryosphere 14 , 3033–3070 (2020).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Seroussi, H. et al. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. Cryosphere 17 , 5197–5217 (2023).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Seroussi, H. et al. Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble. Earths Future 12 , e2024EF004561 (2024). This study presents the ISMIP6 Antarctic model ensemble used as the primary dataset in this study, making it an essential reference for interpreting the results.
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Coulon, V. et al. Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model. Cryosphere 18 , 653–681 (2024).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. & Lenaerts, J. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 , L05503 (2011).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Fricker, H. A. et al. Antarctica in 2025: drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss. Science 387 , 601–609 (2025).
Article
ADS
PubMed
Google Scholar
Bassis, J. & Walker, C. C. Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice. Proc. R. Soc. A 468 , 913–931 (2011).
Article
ADS
Google Scholar
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L. & Siegfried, M. R. Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Geosci. 13 , 616–620 (2020).
Article
ADS
PubMed
PubMed Central
Google Scholar
Smith, B. et al. Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes. Science 368 , 1239–1242 (2020).
Article
ADS
PubMed
Google Scholar
Badgeley, J. A., Morlighem, M. & Seroussi, H. Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 122 , e2411904122 (2025).
Article
PubMed
PubMed Central
Google Scholar
Choi, Y., Petty, A., Felikson, D. & Poterjoy, J. Estimation of the state and parameters in ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter and Observing System Simulation Experiments. Cryosphere 19 , 5423–5444 (2025).
Goldberg, D. N. & Heimbach, P. Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model. Cryosphere 7 , 1659…
Read the full article at Nature News →