Malgré la réserve affichée par Donald Trump, Paris et Londres maintiennent leur "offre", selon les termes d' Emmanuel Macron , de participer à la sécurisation du détroit d'Ormuz à travers la coalition d'une quarantaine d'États qu'ils ont lancée.
"Peut-être que ce ne sera pas souhaité, peut-être que ce ne sera pas nécessaire mais c'est une disposition qui marque notre volonté d'aider", a déclaré lundi 15 juin le président français lors du sommet du G7 , répondant à son homologue américain qui disait n'avoir "pas besoin de beaucoup d'aide" pour rouvrir le détroit.
Le point sur les moyens et le rôle que pourrait jouer cette coalition dans cette artère stratégique du commerce mondial.
À lire aussi Détroit d'Ormuz, retrait du Liban... Ce que l'on sait de l'accord entre les États-Unis et l'Iran
Quels moyens ?
La France et le Royaume-Uni ont bâti depuis mars une coalition de pays non-belligérants destinée à aider la reprise du trafic maritime paralysé dans le détroit d'Ormuz, où transite en temps normal près de 20 % de la production pétrolière.
Donald Trump , qui aurait souhaité être soutenu dans sa guerre contre l' Iran , montre une certaine défiance envers cette coalition qui a toujours affirmé vouloir entrer en action une fois le conflit terminé.
"Si les Européens sont impliqués d'une façon ou d'une autre, ce sera une petite victoire pour eux", qui signifierait "qu'ils ont réussi à exister dans ce rapport de forces", estime Sylvain Domergue, géographe expert des enjeux de sécurité maritime.
Actuellement, "une vingtaine de pays ont donné leur contribution concrète (...) et quatre sont présents dans la région", a affirmé lundi Emmanuel Macron.
La France a positionné depuis mi-mai son porte-avions Charles-De-Gaulle au large de la péninsule arabique. "Il peut être déployé dans les deux ou trois jours" dans la zone d'Ormuz, a affirmé le président français.
Deux bâtiments chasseurs de mines, la Lyre et l'Andromède, se trouvent par ailleurs à proximité, "prêts à se rendre sur zone", a ajouté la ministre des Armées, Catherine Vautrin.
Le Royaume-Uni a de son côté annoncé en mai "prépositionner au Moyen-Orient" son destroyer HMS Dragon.
L'Italie a rapproché du Golfe deux chasseurs de mines rattachés à l'opération européenne Aspides de sécurisation du trafic maritime en Mer rouge.
Un chasseur de mines allemand est également présent en Méditerranée, mais le ministre des Affaires étrangères Johann Wadephul a rappelé mardi qu'"il n'est responsable d'engager ce navire - et de demander au Bundestag, ce qui est nécessaire - qu'une fois toutes les conditions réunies".
Quelles missions ?
"L'intérêt principal (...) est de rassurer les acteurs du transport maritime pour qu'ils acceptent de renvoyer leurs bateaux dans le Golfe ", résume Stéphane Audrand, consultant et chercheur associé à l'Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri).
Ce dispositif aura pour mission première de détecter et retirer les mines que Téhéran dit avoir posées dans cet étroit bras de mer bordé par l'Iran, Oman et les Émirats arabes unis. L'US Navy dispose de peu de moyens pour ces opérations.
"Plus il y a de pays compétents - et les Européens sont assez compétents dans le déminage - qui viendront sur place pour 'blanchir' les eaux, plus le transport reprendra vite", estime Stéphane Audrand.
Selon Paris et Londres, ces navires pourraient aussi accompagner la sortie des quelque 2 000 pétroliers et cargos bloqués. "Il s'agit d'une opération logistique colossale, même en temps de paix", souligne Elisabeth Braw, experte en sécurité maritime de l'Atlantic Council.
"Les Omanais nous ont déjà dit d'accord pour les escortes", a indiqué Emmanuel Macron.
Quels obstacles ?
Si Donald Trump a assuré que le détroit serait "complètement ouvert" vendredi, l'agence de presse iranienne Mehr évoque, elle, une réouverture "sous 30 jours".
Ormuz reste un levier de négociation majeur pour Téhéran, alors que doit s'ouvrir une période de 60 jours de pourparlers avec les États-Unis .
Selon Sylvain Domergue, Téhéran, qui voudrait instaurer le paiement de "frais de service" dans le détroit, pourrait se montrer réticent à des opérations de déminage afin de "forcer les navires à utiliser ses routes", c'est-à-dire les eaux longeant ses côtes par lesquelles quelques navires sont actuellement autorisés à transiter.
L'accord annoncé "n'est pas une paix permanente, mais un accord de 60 jours", rappelle Elisabeth Braw : "Ce qui compte, c'est la façon dont les armateurs le perçoivent. S'ils ne sont pas convaincus qu'il change fondamentalement la donne, ils ne vont pas se précipiter pour faire sortir leurs navires".
L'association professionnelle d'armateurs Bimco a estimé lundi qu'Américains et Iraniens "ne fournissent pas suffisamment d'informations sur des aspects-clés, tels que le calendrier et les routes sûres", et jugé "qu'il est encore très risqué pour les navires d'entreprendre des transits".
Avec AFP
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Official sources cited
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