Perché le "probabilità di malefatte sono alte" in queste elezioni intermedie

Tensions within the Democratic Party have escalated ahead of the November midterms, with several prominent centrists and strategists publicly questioning whether the party should prioritize defeating its own progressive wing over securing a narrow congressional majority. This internal friction centers largely on the rise of candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), particularly in key battleground states like Michigan. The dispute has moved beyond online rhetoric into direct electoral interference, as evidenced by recent calls from senior party figures to withhold votes from established nominees. The conflict draws explicit parallels to the "Party Unity, My Ass" (PUMA) movement of 2008, which protested the perceived theft of the nomination from Hillary Clinton by Barack Obama. According to Eoin Higgins, author of Owned: How Tech Billionaires on the Right Bought the Loudest Voice on the Left, similar energy is currently directed against DSA-aligned progressives. Higgins argues that while these candidates have won numerous primaries and are positioned to help Democrats gain control of Congress, their presence threatens to upend decades of donor-friendly policymaking. For moderate Democrats, the concept of party unity is often applied selectively to force the left wing to align with centrist preferences, but less frequently used to demand that centrists support candidates with divergent goals. Some centrists have expressed a preference for a Republican-controlled House if the alternative is an empowered DSA influence within a slim Democratic majority. James Carville, the former strategist behind Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential victory, articulated this sentiment on The Bulwark podcast hosted by Bill Kristol. Carville stated that he would be disappointed if Democrats secured a 225-seat majority in the House. He argued that he would prefer Republicans retain the chamber by a margin of five seats rather than Democrats winning by five, citing concerns that a narrow Democratic victory would render the party "hostage to the DSA." Kristol, who described himself as a Democrat despite previously supporting Sarah Palin during the PUMA era, pushed back against Carville’s assessment, stating a preference for winning the election outright. Carville is noted as the first member of his strategic cohort to explicitly advocate for a Republican victory to prevent increased power for the party's left flank. Similar hesitations are visible in state-level races. Maine Governor Janet Mills has declined to endorse her party’s Senate nominee, Troy Jackson, following her loss to Graham Platner. Reports suggest that a long-standing bitter history between Mills and Jackson in state government may be influencing her decision. More significantly, the race in Michigan for the U.S. Senate has become a focal point for intra-party division. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, won a grueling primary in early August but faces an uphill battle in the general election against Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed aims to become the first Muslim U.S. senator, but his candidacy has drawn resistance from within his own party and among broader liberal circles. El-Sayed, a public health official, ran on a progressive platform that included Medicare for All and significant tax increases on wealthy individuals. While he skews to the progressive side of the party, he is neither a socialist nor a member of the DSA. His domestic policy positions are generally considered compatible with the wing of the party associated with Senator Elizabeth Warren. However, his controversial criticisms of Israel have dampened support among centrist voters. Until recently, opposition to El-Sayed was largely confined to social media platforms and occasional cable news commentary. That dynamic shifted on October 16, when David Kramer and Lon Johnson, two powerful figures in the Michigan Democratic Party, published an op-ed in the Detroit News urging voters to leave El-Sayed’s spot on the ballot blank. This action would effectively cede the seat to Rogers, a former congressman known for denying election results and serving as a close ally of President Donald Trump. The op-ed linked El-Sayed to extreme elements of Islam and suggested voting for him would surrender the party to ideological extremism. Political scientists observe that the Democratic Party lacks a coherent governing philosophy or compelling unified leadership, appearing to fracture ideologically even as it approaches potential victory. Sidney Milkis, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, noted that Democrats possess a capacity to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory." He expressed concern over voter reaction to the democratic socialist insurgency, describing El-Sayed as a good candidate burdened by significant political baggage. Matt Bennett of the Third Way, a centrist think tank, indicated that the party’s future direction hinges on the magnitude of its victory. A narrow win would subject House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to intense pressure from DSA allies, whereas a larger victory might allow him to resist such demands. Bennett emphasized that the party’s identity will ultimately be determined by the 2028 presidential primary process rather than congressional dynamics. Current party leadership faces low favorability ratings, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Jeffries struggling to connect with younger voters who are dismissive of current placeholders. Charisma and attention are increasingly captured by far-left figures, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other DSA affiliates, despite the bulk of the electorate remaining centered. This shift creates vulnerability to a Republican strategy for 2028 that labels Democrats as communists or unfit to govern. In related commentary, Bill Maher appeared on HBO’s Real Time alongside Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Maher asserted that Democrats have not renounced their far-left wing, calling DSA positions communist. Beshear countered that socialism is a failed experiment but emphasized his ability to collaborate with anyone seeking to solve problems like healthcare access. Both men praised San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie during the discussion. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings sit at record lows amidst high inflation driven by an unpopular war, leading many pundits to view the midterms as the final check on executive power before the nation enters a deeper political impasse.