La Nigeria ha davvero più di 103 milioni di elettori?, di Chidi Anselm Odinkalu

Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan ordered a comprehensive review of voter registration records in Nigeria’s South-East zone on Tuesday. The directive aims to resolve bottlenecks preventing the distribution of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) ahead of the 2027 general election. Amupitan issued the instruction during a zonal interactive meeting in Enugu, expressing dissatisfaction with the current collection rate of cards in the region. The commission stated that its primary operational focus in the South-East is to dismantle every obstacle affecting PVC distribution. The goal is to ensure no eligible citizen who registered is disenfranchised by administrative or logistical friction. The meeting marked the third stop in a nationwide readiness assessment tour. Previous editions took place in Lagos on September 7, 2026, and in Kaduna on September 28, 2026. Amupitan noted that no INEC chairman had visited the Enugu office since 1999. For over two decades, zonal preparations of this magnitude were coordinated through delegated structures or handled at the level of national commissioners and headquarters directorates. The chairman described his physical presence as a break from the tradition of remote governance. He emphasized that election success is determined in the field across the 95 local government areas of the South-East, specifically in registration area centres and polling units, rather than solely in Abuja meeting rooms. Amupitan reported that the national register of voters currently exceeds 103 million registered citizens. Citing Section 10 of the Electoral Act 2026, he detailed the results of three structured phases of continuous voter registration. Phase I, running from August 25, 2025, to December 10, 2025, registered 2,611,266 voters. Phase II, held between January 5, 2026, and April 17, 2026, added 4,121,835 voters. Phase III, conducted from May 11, 2026, to July 26, 2026, registered 3,867,997 voters. These figures total 10,772,421 new registrants. However, these numbers remain subject to final automated biometric identification system deduplication verification at the national headquarters. During the third phase, the commission introduced an online registration portal for the first time in Nigeria. The technology was designed to eliminate barriers of distance and time. Additionally, the commission activated printable PVC technology in accordance with Section 18(1) of the Electoral Act 2026. Amupitan stated this innovation ensures that waiting months to collect a voter card becomes obsolete. He warned that the 2027 general election will be a simultaneous national assignment across 36 states and the federal capital territory. The process involves over 103 million registered voters and 176,846 polling units. He stressed that the statutory timeline is fixed and the clock is ticking. While the commission reports high registration numbers, questions persist regarding the accuracy of the electoral register. Without a credible demographic management system, verifying INEC claims remains difficult. The National Population Commission indicates that only 53 percent of births in the country are registered, and only 10 percent of deaths are recorded. This lack of data makes it impossible to remove deceased individuals from the register promptly. Consequently, the register may contain names of people who have been dead for a decade. Historical data shows discrepancies between population growth and voter registration trends. In 1999, Nigeria’s population was estimated at 115,766,000, with 57.94 million registered voters. By 2023, the population was estimated at 244 million, more than doubling since 1999. Over that period, the voting roll grew by 81.4 percent. From 1999 to 2023, the population rose by approximately 87 percent, but the register of voters grew by 36,530,063, or 63.05 percent. This mismatch suggests that the rate of growth in the voting population did not outstrip the underlying population growth rate, despite increasing life expectancy. Turnout statistics reflect these concerns. In 1999, turnout was 52.3 percent. It officially reached 69 percent in 2003 before declining to 57.5 percent in 2007 and 53.7 percent in 2011. Turnout dropped further to 43.7 percent in 2015 and 34.8 percent in 2019. In 2023, turnout crunched to 26.7 percent. Of more than 93.4 million registered voters at that time, 24.9 million total votes were cast. This represented an 8.03-point decline from the 2019 elections and marked the lowest voter turnout since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999. Analysts warn that turnout in the upcoming elections is likely to be even lower than the recent average.