La guerre de quatre semaines de Trump avec l'Iran approche du septième mois

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran, initially promised to last only “four or five weeks,” is now entering its seventh month. The conflict, which began in February 2026, has escalated unpredictably, with both sides engaging in intermittent clashes and strategic maneuvering. Despite repeated assurances that the war would be brief and decisive, the situation continues to unfold with increasing complexity and economic ramifications. The war has significantly disrupted global energy markets, leading to soaring diesel prices. The average national cost of diesel in the United States hit a record high of $6.45 per gallon this week, a 74% increase from the same period in 2025. This surge has rippled through multiple sectors, affecting industries reliant on diesel for transportation, agriculture, and construction. Farmers, for example, face sharply increased operational costs, which are expected to translate into higher food prices for consumers. Airlines have canceled flights due to fuel shortages, and the Saudi state oil company Aramco has suspended deliveries to European refineries for the month of October. Analysts suggest that the economic impact of the war is becoming more entrenched, with the investment bank JPMorgan abandoning efforts to predict its long-term effects. The U.S. government has attempted to manage the crisis by maintaining low oil prices, even at the expense of future supply stability. In contrast, the Iranian government has allowed price inflation to persist, aiming to stretch domestic supplies despite the hardship it inflicts on its population. According to economist Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Tehran’s strategy relies on free-market dynamics to sustain the conflict. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy has deployed a substantial portion of its fleet to enforce blockades and protect shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on vessels have intensified. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations reported three separate incidents involving Iranian activity in the region within the past three days. The war has also drawn in regional actors. The Houthi group in Yemen, one of the two rival governments in the country, recently seized control of the port of Mokha, bringing them into artillery range of the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In retaliation, Houthi forces destroyed a Saudi pipeline intended to bypass Hormuz, which transports 4% of the world’s oil. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought U.S. intervention in Yemen, requesting that Trump bomb the Houthi positions. Although the administration has refused direct military involvement, a U.S.-Saudi joint command has been established, with approximately 100 U.S. military advisers stationed in the region. The U.S. has been involved in the Saudi-Houthi conflict since 2015, conducting air raids during both the Trump and Biden administrations. Domestic support for the war has waned. A recent poll by the Institute for Global Affairs found that a majority of Americans view the conflict as a mistake, with many unable to identify a clear objective for continued engagement. The war has also contributed to rising living costs, with respondents blaming either the U.S. or its ally Israel for initiating hostilities. Congress passed its first-ever war powers resolution in 2019 to withdraw from the conflict, reflecting deepening public discontent. Despite this, bipartisan hardliners continue to push for greater U.S. involvement, particularly in countering Houthi advances. During a congressional hearing, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D, Fla.) questioned why the Trump administration was not supporting efforts to counter the Houthi threat. The administration has yet to provide a definitive response, leaving the trajectory of the conflict uncertain. Meanwhile, the broader economic fallout persists. The war has exacerbated global supply chain tensions, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict further disrupting oil flows. Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian refineries have led to reduced production, prompting Moscow to ban diesel exports until October. President Trump has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cease strikes on Russian oil facilities, arguing that such actions harm global stability. However, no agreement has been reached. Analysts note that the Iran war has compounded these challenges, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributing to market volatility and higher diesel prices. As the war enters its seventh month, the economic and geopolitical stakes continue to grow. With no end in sight and mounting pressure from both domestic and international stakeholders, the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.