Heure de pointe: HC refuse de rester chef du TMC rebelle en tant que LoP, six députés de l'Uddhav Sena sautent la réunion du parti et plus

Amid growing unrest within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) factions, the political landscape in India is shifting rapidly. These developments have sparked renewed interest in the prospects of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as it seeks to strengthen its position in both houses of Parliament. The NDA's ability to achieve a two-thirds majority—essential for passing significant constitutional amendments—is now a focal point of political discourse.

The situation began to unfold when reports emerged of internal dissent within the TMC and the Shiv Sena. The TMC, which has long been a formidable opposition force in West Bengal, faces a potential split following its electoral losses. This has led to several of its legislators breaking ranks, raising questions about the stability of the party. Similarly, the Shiv Sena, traditionally a strong regional party in Maharashtra, is grappling with internal strife between the factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. Some of the Shiv Sena's Lok Sabha MPs reportedly skipped a crucial meeting, fueling speculation about possible defections to the Shinde faction.

These developments have implications for the NDA's parliamentary arithmetic. Currently, the NDA holds 293 seats in the Lok Sabha, falling short of the 360 seats required for a two-thirds majority. However, the potential support from rebel TMC and Shiv Sena MPs could bring the NDA's count up to 316 seats. Despite this improvement, the alliance would still need approximately 40 additional seats to reach the threshold necessary for constitutional amendments.

In the Rajya Sabha, the scenario appears slightly more favorable for the NDA. With 149 seats, the alliance is projected to gain more seats following recent elections and potential by-elections in West Bengal. Projections indicate that the NDA could reach 158 seats in the Rajya Sabha, just six seats shy of the 164 required for a two-thirds majority. This suggests that the NDA might be closer to achieving the necessary majority in the upper house compared to the lower house.

Political analysts are also considering the potential contributions of other opposition parties, notably the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). Both parties hold considerable influence in their respective regions and could play a pivotal role in shaping future legislative outcomes. The DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha, while the SP has 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha. Although neither party has officially committed to supporting the NDA, their involvement could significantly bolster the NDA's chances of securing the required majority.

As the political tides shift, the focus remains on whether these potential alliances will materialize into concrete support. For now, the discussions revolve around parliamentary arithmetic rather than confirmed political realignments. The reported rebellions within the TMC and the Shiv Sena have indeed enhanced the NDA's position, yet the alliance still lacks the numbers needed to independently push through major constitutional amendments. The coming weeks will be critical in determining how these dynamics evolve and whether the NDA can bridge the remaining gap to achieve its strategic objectives.