L'Italie se dépeuple, plus de 13 millions de résidents en moins en 2080

The Italian population is projected to decline by more than 13 million residents by 2080, according to new demographic projections released by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat). This dramatic reduction would see Italy become significantly smaller, with a much older population and a marked shift in its social structure. The report highlights that the country will experience a sharp drop in working-age individuals, while the proportion of elderly citizens continues to rise. Professor Andrea Rosina of the University of Milan’s Department of Demography and Social Statistics described the potential loss as equivalent to the disappearance of both Lombardy and Tuscany, two of Italy’s most populous regions. The decline is expected to accelerate over time, with the population dropping by four million by 2050 alone. Starting from approximately 58.9 million residents in early 2025, the number is forecasted to fall to 55 million by 2050 and further to 45.8 million by 2080. These figures represent a long-term trend of depopulation, driven primarily by low birth rates and high mortality levels. According to the Istat report, the aging population will continue to dominate, with the percentage of people aged 65 and above reaching 34.5% by 2050, an increase from the current level of 24.7%. Regional disparities are also expected to widen. While the northern regions initially show a slight growth, this trend is anticipated to reverse, leading to a steady decline in population numbers. By 2080, the North could have fewer than 24.2 million residents, down from 27.5 million in 2025. In contrast, the Central and Southern regions face more severe challenges, with the South experiencing an annual contraction rate of around 1% after 2050. By 2080, the population in the South is projected to fall below 12.3 million, representing nearly one-third less than the 19.7 million recorded in 2025. The demographic changes pose serious implications for Italy’s economy and society. With fewer young people entering the workforce, there will be a shrinking labor force capable of sustaining economic activity and supporting public services. The report notes that the share of the population aged 15–64 years is set to decrease from 63.4% in 2025 to 55.3% by 2050. This shrinkage threatens to reduce productivity and place additional strain on pension systems and healthcare infrastructure. To counter these trends, experts emphasize the need for policies aimed at increasing the participation of women in the workforce and improving opportunities for younger generations. Professor Rosina argues that enhancing the quality of life and employment prospects for younger Italians is crucial to mitigating the effects of depopulation. She suggests investing in education, innovation, and research, along with creating supportive environments for families who wish to have children. Additionally, she stresses the importance of extending active participation among older adults through better work conditions and lifelong learning programs. Immigration is also identified as a key factor, though it is unlikely to fully offset the natural population decline. The Istat estimates that net immigration into Italy will remain positive throughout the period, but it will not be enough to compensate for the gap between births and deaths. Migrant numbers are projected to fluctuate, peaking at around 404,000 by 2080, yet they will still fall short of reversing the overall demographic imbalance. The report warns that even with increased migration, the population will continue to contract due to the persistent negative natural balance. Another critical aspect highlighted by the report is the growing number of single-person households, particularly among the elderly. Between 2025 and 2050, the number of individuals living alone is expected to rise by 16%, with over half of these being people aged 65 and above. This trend reflects broader societal shifts, including lower fertility rates and higher life expectancy. By 2050, nearly 57% of all single-person households will consist of individuals over 65, signaling a profound transformation in family structures and community dynamics. The report also points to a future where childless couples will outnumber those with children. By 2047, the number of childless households is predicted to surpass those with children, marking a significant cultural and demographic shift. The decline in family units is attributed to both declining fertility rates and structural factors such as changing gender roles and evolving social norms. As a result, the traditional model of family life is expected to give way to more diverse and individualized forms of living arrangements.