La diplomatie diesel décidera des élections de mi-mandat

Diesel's surge is pushing up prices across multiple sectors, according to reports. The increase in diesel costs is affecting transportation, manufacturing, and other industries reliant on this fuel. The situation highlights the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the challenges faced by economies dependent on diesel. Over the past year, UK diesel prices have risen by 40%, contributing to higher inflation and slowing economic growth. This has made interest-rate cuts less likely, adding pressure to businesses and consumers alike. The rise in diesel prices stems from both recent geopolitical developments and long-standing structural issues within the energy sector. Global diesel supply has been disrupted due to conflicts in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Although crude oil is flowing through pipelines from the Gulf and a shuttle system of state-owned vessels, supported by the US Navy, is maintaining near-pre-war levels of volume, the supply of refined products and petrochemicals remains constrained. Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged several Russian refineries, further limiting output. Meanwhile, China has restricted the export of refined products to manage domestic prices. Refinery capacity worldwide has declined significantly since 2000. In the UK, the number of refineries has dropped from 18 to just four. High electricity costs and stringent environmental regulations have contributed to the closure of many smaller refineries, reducing overall production capabilities. The shift in global energy demand by the International Maritime Organization has also impacted diesel availability. The organization mandated the use of cleaner fuels, such as marine gas oil, which shares the same refining segment as diesel and jet fuel. This change has increased demand for middle distillates, making diesel and jet fuel prices more volatile. Currently, the UK produces only half of the approximately 500,000 barrels of diesel it consumes daily, relying heavily on imports from the US, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the Middle East. Refineries globally are operating at near-maximum capacity, with the US reaching 98% utilization. The crack spread, which reflects the profitability of refining operations, is now three times its historical average. If refineries could produce more diesel, they would, but current constraints limit their ability to meet demand.