UNSC to hold second informal vote for organisation's next secretary general

The United Nations Security Council will convene on Friday to conduct its second informal vote in the selection process for the organization’s next secretary-general. This follows the initial straw poll held earlier this month, during which Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan emerged as the leading contender among a group of seven candidates. The upcoming vote aims to further narrow the field and provide insight into how support may shift over the coming weeks. The list of candidates includes Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, currently the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, and Senegal’s Macky Sall. In addition, Ecuador’s Ivonne A-Baki recently joined the race, seeking to replace outgoing Secretary-General António Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on 31 December. According to the International Crisis Group’s Daniel Forti, the second informal vote may offer clearer indications of which candidates are gaining traction. However, he cautioned that it is unlikely any individual will secure a decisive lead following the poll. Diplomats anticipate that the distribution of votes could fluctuate significantly from the results of the July vote. The five permanent members, France, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are expected to withhold their preferences until later stages, potentially allowing for the emergence of additional candidates. Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, acknowledged the possibility of new entrants entering the race. “If there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody… flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well,” he stated. This suggests that the selection process remains fluid, with the outcome still uncertain. To qualify for the position, a candidate must receive at least nine votes from the 15 members of the Security Council. Even if a candidate meets this threshold, they must also navigate the challenge of avoiding a veto from the five permanent members, who remain deeply divided on the issue. Once cleared, the candidate’s name will be forwarded to the General Assembly for final approval. The informal voting process, established in the early 1980s, was designed to resolve deadlocks between competing candidates. Despite ongoing criticisms regarding its opacity, the method has continued to be used, albeit in modified forms. Each member state is required to submit an anonymous ballot assigning one of three ratings to each candidate: “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” Candidates receiving no support may choose to withdraw, although this is not mandatory. Initially, all ballots are issued in the same color, ensuring anonymity. However, after an unspecified number of votes, the ballots cast by the five permanent members will be marked differently, enabling the identification of potential vetoes without revealing which specific nation exercised them. This step is intended to maintain confidentiality while allowing for strategic maneuvering. Traditionally, the secretary-general’s role rotates among different geographic regions, with the expectation that the next occupant will come from Latin America. While several candidates from the region are present, both Macky Sall of Senegal and Olara Otunnu of Uganda represent African nations, highlighting the complexity of regional expectations within the selection process.