Who will succeed Antonio Guterres as the Secretary General of the UN?

The United Nations Security Council is set to hold its second informal vote this week to determine the next Secretary-General, following the initial assessment of eight candidates. The process, which could span several months, aims to identify a nominee who can secure at least nine of the 15 council members’ votes while avoiding a veto from any of the five permanent members, United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. The eventual recommendation will then be submitted to the UN General Assembly for final approval. The eight candidates include Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argentina, Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, Olara Otunnu of Uganda, Macky Sall of Senegal, and Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador. The list reflects a diverse range of backgrounds and experiences, with both women and men vying for the top post. Notably, the inclusion of multiple Latin American candidates aligns with a long-standing tradition of alternating regional representation, though this norm is not always strictly followed. Rebeca Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica and current head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), emerged as the leading contender after the first informal vote in July. At 70 years old, she has highlighted her personal history as the daughter of Jewish parents who narrowly escaped the Holocaust before settling in Costa Rica. She has criticized the UN for becoming overly risk-averse and emphasized the need for bold action on global issues. In 2022, she played a pivotal role in negotiating the Black Sea Grain Initiative, facilitating grain exports from Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion. Michelle Bachelet, the former president of Chile and former High Commissioner for Human Rights at the UN, is another prominent candidate. At 74, she has faced criticism from certain nations, particularly China, for her reports on alleged human rights violations against the Uighur community in Xinjiang. Despite these tensions, Bachelet advocates for a UN Secretary-General who possesses a “moral voice” to guide the organization, even in the face of geopolitical pressures. Her candidacy has received backing from Mexico and Brazil, although Chile withdrew its support after the election of far-right President José Antonio Kast. Maria Fernanda Espinosa, the former foreign minister of Ecuador and a former president of the UN General Assembly, emphasizes the UN’s role as the sole universal platform for addressing shared global challenges. She has proposed reforms aimed at strengthening the organization, including the creation of an “early warning” system to detect early signs of potential conflicts. However, her home country, Ecuador, has not endorsed her candidacy, despite her international recognition. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the current director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, brings extensive experience in nuclear diplomacy. He has been central to discussions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Although he has not stepped down from his current role to run for the UN Secretary-General, he has argued that the position requires a more active and engaged leader. Observers suggest he is more vocal in advocating for structural changes within the UN. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, the former foreign minister of Guyana and current ambassador to the UN, focuses on restoring the UN’s credibility on the global stage. She argues that the organization is often judged primarily through the lens of peace and security but has made significant contributions in development and human rights initiatives. Her campaign highlights the need for renewed public trust in the UN’s ability to address complex global challenges. Ivonne A-Baki, the 75-year-old former ambassador of Ecuador to the United States and France, joined the race in late August. With a background rooted in diplomatic relations, she has advocated for a more results-oriented and less bureaucratic UN. Born to Lebanese parents, she played a key role in resolving border disputes between Ecuador and Peru. Her candidacy underscores the ongoing efforts to modernize and streamline the UN’s operations.