Rodrigues Birkett and Otunnu Show Biggest Gains in UN SecGen Poll

In an ongoing contest to determine the next United Nations secretary-general, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana emerged as the leading candidate following the second informal straw poll conducted by the UN Security Council on August 21, 2026. The poll, held in the Council's private consultations room, marked the latest step in a process that could extend through the remainder of the year before the Council recommends a single candidate to the General Assembly for final approval. The 193-member assembly will formally appoint the new secretary-general by December 31, when current Secretary-General António Guterres’s second term concludes. The straw poll included eight candidates vying for the top UN post. While no candidate secured the required nine affirmative votes needed to take a clear lead, Rodrigues Birkett edged out Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, who had previously led the first round of informal voting on July 30. Rodrigues Birkett received eight "encourage," three "discourage," and four "no opinion" ballots, placing her slightly ahead of Grynspan, who garnered seven "encourage," four "discourage," and four "no opinion." Uganda’s Olara Otunnu saw the most significant rise in support, nearly doubling his "encourage" votes from two to five since the previous poll. His performance also showed a notable shift, with several of the eight "no opinion" votes he received in July converting to support in this round. However, even with this progress, Otunnu remained well below the threshold of nine affirmative votes necessary to secure a commanding lead. Other candidates fared less favorably. Rafael Grossi of Argentina received seven "encourage" votes, but six "discourage" and two "no opinion." Macky Sall of Senegal recorded six "encourage" votes, seven "discourage," and two "no opinion." María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, nominated by Antigua and Barbuda, received four "encourage," three "discourage," and eight "no opinion." Michelle Bachelet of Chile, backed by Brazil and Mexico, dropped sharply from six "encourage" votes in July to just two on August 21, accompanied by six "discourage" and seven "no opinion" votes. Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador, who entered the race after the initial poll, faced the most negative reception, receiving no "encourage" votes, eight "discourage," and seven "no opinion." Her debut on the Council ballot yielded the most unfavorable results of the round, with more than half of the members expressing discouragement toward her candidacy. Daniel Forti, head of UN affairs at the International Crisis Group, noted that the evolving dynamics among the candidates reflect growing openness from the five permanent members of the Security Council, Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States. He suggested that the lack of a clear majority after two rounds might encourage other potential candidates to enter the race. The straw poll results highlight the fluid nature of the selection process, with candidates gaining or losing ground based on shifting alliances and preferences within the Council. The second poll followed the first round held on July 30, during which Grynspan initially led with 10 "encourage," 1 "discourage," and four "no opinion" votes. Since then, several candidates have experienced fluctuations in support, indicating that the race remains highly competitive. The Security Council’s monthly rotating president, Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen of Denmark, confirmed the conduct of the informal straw poll to media representatives, though she did not disclose specific results. The process continues to unfold amid speculation about how the permanent members will ultimately align their preferences as the deadline approaches. As the race progresses, the Council’s deliberations will likely intensify, with each candidate seeking to solidify support among the 15 members. The eventual recommendation to the General Assembly will depend on consensus-building efforts, particularly among the P5 nations, whose backing is crucial for any candidate aiming to secure the secretary-general role.