Guyana’s Rodrigues Birkett leads informal poll in race to be next UN leader

Guyana's Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett has taken the lead in an informal poll to determine the next United Nations secretary-general, according to sources close to the process. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held its second non-binding straw poll this week, with Birkett receiving eight "encourage" votes, three "discourage" votes, and four members expressing no opinion. This positions her as the leading contender ahead of seven other declared candidates. The vote took place amid preparations for the departure of current Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose second five-year term concludes on December 31. There is no official restriction on how many times a secretary-general can serve, though no individual has ever held the post for more than two terms. The selection process involves multiple rounds of informal polling designed to identify potential candidates who have broad support within the 15-member council. Rodrigues Birkett, currently serving as Guyana’s representative to the UN, was closely followed by Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, both of whom received seven "encourage" votes. However, Grossi faced more opposition, with six "discourage" votes compared to Grynspan’s four. Grynspan had previously led the field after the first round of voting in July. Other candidates include former Senegalese President Macky Sall, former UN General Assembly President Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, and Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki. The informal straw polls aim to build consensus among the council members before a formal recommendation is made to the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Once the UNSC narrows down the field, the UNGA typically approves the selected candidate as a formality. To move forward, a candidate must secure at least nine votes in a formal UNSC vote. Any of the five permanent members, United States, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom, can block a nominee through a veto. In subsequent rounds of the straw polls, the permanent members use differently colored ballots to indicate whether they have cast a "discourage" vote. This helps signal areas of concern or resistance early in the process, allowing for adjustments before reaching a final decision. The upcoming secretary-general will inherit a UN facing mounting challenges. Recent years have seen criticism over the organization’s inability to prevent or resolve major global conflicts, such as Israel’s ongoing conflict with Palestine and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These issues have raised questions about the effectiveness and relevance of the UN in addressing contemporary international crises. The selection process reflects the complex dynamics of multilateral diplomacy, where geopolitical interests often influence decisions. While the informal polls provide insight into the preferences of the council members, the final outcome will depend heavily on negotiations and alignments among the permanent members. Each candidate brings distinct experiences and perspectives, shaping their approach to leadership and the priorities they would emphasize once in office. As the race continues, the focus shifts toward building alliances and securing support from key stakeholders. The eventual nominee will need to address concerns about the UN’s role in global affairs while navigating the intricate web of international relations. The path to becoming secretary-general remains uncertain, with the balance of power among the council members playing a crucial role in determining the next leader of the United Nations.