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'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket
United States🏛️ PoliticsCenter3 days ago

'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket

An investigation by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests that 152 highly successful Polymarket wallets, nicknamed 'Orcas,' may have engaged in insider trading using confidential military information related to U.S. defense operations, including the June 2025 attacks on Iran. These wallets achieved a 97.2% success rate and collectively won $8 million. The platform, which is connected to Donald Trump Jr., who serves as an advisor, has attracted investment from his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. Additionally, Trump family members, including Eric Trump, have financial ties to defense-related companies like Powerus and Xtend, which have secured military contracts. Concerns over insider trading on Polymarket have grown, highlighted by cases such as Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly profited over $400,000 by betting on a covert operation against Venezuela's leader. The White House has issued warnings against using nonpublic government information for betting, while some lawmakers have taken steps to prohibit insider trading on prediction markets.

A group of high-performing traders, referred to as “Orcas,” has reportedly profited significantly from placing high-stakes bets on U.S. military operations through the Trump-connected prediction market Polymarket. According to a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, these traders achieved a 97.2% success rate and collectively won $8 million by wagering on key defense operations, including the June 2025 attacks on Iran. The report suggests that these traders may have had access to inside military information, enabling them to make highly accurate predictions. The Polymarket platform, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of geopolitical events, is advised by Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son. His venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, invested in the platform shortly after its founding. Trump Jr. and his brother, Eric Trump, continue to benefit from defense-related ventures. Both have made substantial investments in firms tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Powerus, a company backed by both brothers, secured two Air Force contracts for interceptor drones this year. Eric Trump has also invested in Xtend, an Israeli drone firm contracted by the Department of Defense. Xtend’s drones have been deployed during the Iran war under a multi-million-dollar contract with an unnamed Middle Eastern government. Additionally, Eric Trump joined the advisory board of Space-Eyes, a company specializing in drone detection and countermeasures, later in July. Donald Trump Jr. is also part of the board of Unusual Machines, a startup producing drone components. The report highlights growing concerns about the role of Polymarket in facilitating insider trading. A recent case involves Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly planned and executed the covert U.S. operation that led to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power in January. Van Dyke is accused of earning over $400,000 by betting on the operation’s success before it occurred. He has pleaded not guilty to these charges. Other instances include repeated bets by Polymarket users predicting drops in crude oil prices just before Trump announced perceived diplomatic progress with Iran or halted airstrikes, moves that typically caused oil prices to decline. These patterns suggest the bets may have been informed by insider knowledge. Such activities raise serious national security concerns. David Szakonyi, co-founder of the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, told Reuters that unusual betting trends on Polymarket are easily observable online. He emphasized that large traders and automated systems often mimic potential insider trades, noting that it would be naive to assume foreign intelligence agencies are not monitoring these platforms. The White House issued a warning in March advising administration officials against using nonpublic government information for gambling purposes. In response, U.S. senators have enacted self-imposed bans on insider trading on prediction markets. A similar measure is currently under consideration in the House of Representatives. Rep. Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, who has introduced legislation to prohibit such practices in the House, stated that the current system is indefensible. He argued that there is no valid reason to allow government officials or campaign members to wager on decisions they help make. In separate developments, JPMorgan Chase quietly ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in October due to regulatory concerns. While the bank severed its formal ties with the platform, some connections between the two entities still exist. This move underscores the increasing scrutiny surrounding Polymarket’s operations and its potential links to sensitive governmental and military activities.

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5 reports

Quartz logoQuartzIndependentCenterFactual 85Objective 9012 days ago
Polymarket is overhauling its marketing and building out its U.S. team ahead of fall events

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has expanded its leadership team by hiring a chief growth officer and four other senior officials. This move comes as the platform prepares for major upcoming events, including the NFL season and the midterm elections. The expansion suggests Polymarket is positioning itself to capitalize on increased activity and engagement during these high-profile periods.

Bias read (Center): The article presents information about Polymarket's strategic moves without overtly favoring any particular political ideology. It focuses on the company's operational decisions and preparations for significant events, rather than taking a stance on the political implications of those events. The ph

Why factuality (85): The article accurately reports that Polymarket is expanding its marketing efforts and hiring new personnel ahead of major events like the NFL season and midterm elections. The information aligns with general industry reporting and there is no clear contradiction from other sources. However, specific

Why objectivity (90): The article presents the information in a neutral tone, focusing on factual updates about company expansion and strategic planning. It avoids taking a stance or using emotionally charged language, maintaining a balanced perspective.

HuffPost logoHuffPostIndependentCenterFactual 85Objective 753 days ago
More Than 150 Polymarket Wallets May Have Traded On Military Secrets, Research Finds

A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), reported by Reuters, reveals that over 150 wallets on the Polymarket prediction platform may have traded using insider U.S. military information, potentially exposing sensitive data to foreign adversaries. The research identifies 'Orcas', traders who rapidly place high-stakes bets on niche markets with low probability outcomes, and finds 152 such wallets specifically targeting military and defense markets, collectively earning $8 million with a 97.2% success rate. While the Department of Defense declines to comment, Polymarket claims it has implemented monitoring systems and referred several accounts to authorities, including a case involving a soldier accused of leaking classified information about Venezuela's leadership. The report raises concerns about the risks of insider trading on open blockchain platforms, where wagering is transparent but user identities remain hidden.

Bias read (Center): While the article highlights concerns about potential insider trading and national security risks, it presents the findings of independent research without overtly endorsing any political stance. It includes quotes from both the research group and Polymarket, and acknowledges alternative theories (e

Why factuality (85): The article accurately reports findings from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective regarding potential insider trading on Polymarket involving U.S. military secrets. It cites Reuters as the original source and includes relevant details like the number of wallets identified and the methodology used by

Why objectivity (75): The article presents the findings in a largely neutral manner but uses terms like 'copycat bets' and 'broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries,' which introduce some concern-based language. While it mentions both the research and Polymarket's response, it leans slightly toward highlighti

Quartz logoQuartzIndependentCenterFactual 80Objective 856 days ago
JPMorgan quietly dropped Polymarket as a banking client over regulatory concerns

JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with Polymarket, a prediction market platform, in October due to regulatory concerns. The decision was made quietly, and while the partnership has been terminated, some residual connections between the two entities still exist. Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to bet on future events, which can raise legal and compliance issues depending on jurisdiction. JPMorgan’s move reflects growing scrutiny around financial services related to decentralized platforms and the challenges of regulating emerging technologies. This action highlights the increasing caution among major banks regarding potential legal risks associated with such platforms.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a factual account of JPMorgan's decision to terminate its relationship with Polymarket due to regulatory concerns. It does not exhibit overtly biased language, one-sided sourcing, or omission of context. The framing remains neutral, focusing on the regulatory environment rather

Why factuality (80): This article provides a straightforward statement that JPMorgan terminated its relationship with Polymarket due to regulatory concerns, citing a specific timeframe (October) and noting that some ties remain. While it does not provide detailed sources beyond the claim itself, it presents the informat

Why objectivity (85): The article maintains a neutral tone, simply reporting the action taken by JPMorgan without expressing opinion or bias. It avoids emotive language and presents the information objectively, focusing solely on the factual outcome of the bank dropping Polymarket as a client.

Responsible Statecraft logoResponsible StatecraftParty-alignedProgressiveFactual 65Objective 453 days ago
'Orcas' with likely inside info win big on Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket

An investigation by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests that 152 highly successful Polymarket wallets, nicknamed 'Orcas,' may have engaged in insider trading using confidential military information related to U.S. defense operations, including the June 2025 attacks on Iran. These wallets achieved a 97.2% success rate and collectively won $8 million. The platform, which is connected to Donald Trump Jr., who serves as an advisor, has attracted investment from his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. Additionally, Trump family members, including Eric Trump, have financial ties to defense-related companies like Powerus and Xtend, which have secured military contracts. Concerns over insider trading on Polymarket have grown, highlighted by cases such as Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly profited over $400,000 by betting on a covert operation against Venezuela's leader. The White House has issued warnings against using nonpublic government information for betting, while some lawmakers have taken steps to prohibit insider trading on prediction markets.

Bias read (Progressive): The article presents evidence suggesting insider trading involving military secrets and ties to the Trump family, implying unethical behavior and potential conflicts of interest. The tone highlights risks to national security and criticizes the lack of regulation around prediction markets, aligning

Why factuality (65): The article cites a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective and mentions Reuters as a source, but no primary source document is available for verification. It presents specific claims about 'Orcas' using inside military information and links them to Trump family connections, but these assertio

Why objectivity (45): The tone is highly suggestive and leans toward a critical perspective of the Trump family's involvement with Polymarket. Phrases like 'likely helping gamblers with inside military information' and 'profit from defense industry investments' imply judgment rather than presenting facts neutrally. The a

Vox logoVoxIndependentCenterFactual 55Objective 609 days ago
People are betting on wildfires on Polymarket. What could go wrong?

The article discusses the growing trend of people using the prediction market platform Polymarket to bet on the occurrence of wildfires. This practice has raised concerns about potential risks and ethical issues associated with such financial speculation on natural disasters. The article explores what might go wrong if this trend continues unchecked, including possible impacts on communities affected by wildfires and the broader implications of turning natural disasters into a form of entertainment or investment. It highlights the increasing role of prediction markets in shaping public perception and behavior around high-stakes events.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced discussion on the emerging phenomenon of betting on wildfires through Polymarket, highlighting both the trend and the concerns surrounding it without overtly favoring any particular perspective. There is no clear ideological framing or biased language used in the text

Why factuality (55): The article reports on people betting on wildfires via Polymarket but lacks specific details about the event itself, making it difficult to assess factual accuracy. It references a broader trend rather than a specific incident, so factuality is limited due to lack of concrete information.

Why objectivity (60): The tone is somewhat speculative, focusing on potential risks and outcomes rather than presenting a neutral analysis. While not overtly biased, it leans into the idea of 'what could go wrong' which introduces a degree of cautionary framing.

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