Kazakhstan parliamentary elections begin: What’s at stake?

Kazakhstan's parliamentary elections began on August 23, marking a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape. This snap election aims to consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's authority following recent constitutional reforms that transformed the legislative structure from a two-chamber system to a single-chamber legislature known as the Kurultai. The shift, implemented in July, aligns with broader efforts to position Kazakhstan as a more influential democratic force in Central Asia. The election will determine the composition of the Kurultai, which consists of 145 seats. To qualify for representation, political parties must secure at least 5% of the total vote. Prior to the reform, the parliament operated as a bicameral body comprising the lower house, Mazhilis, and the upper house, the Senate. With the new system, legislation will flow directly through the Kurultai, bypassing the previous two-tiered approach. Once laws are approved, they will be submitted to the President for final approval. President Tokayev, who assumed office in 2019, is set to complete his second term in 2026. Under the revised constitution, presidents can serve a maximum of seven years, but Tokayev will be eligible for a third term should he choose to run again. His re-election in 2022 saw him garner over 80% of the vote, largely due to the lack of credible opposition candidates. The current election represents a strategic move to reinforce his control ahead of potential future leadership transitions. Seven political parties are participating in the election, each vying for influence within the new legislative framework. Among them is the Adilet party, a newly formed entity that emerged from the dissolution of Amanat, the long-standing ruling party under various guises since the 1990s. Amanat, which had been associated with former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, opted to dissolve itself in favor of Adilet, which is led by senior advisors to Tokayev. This transition reflects a deliberate effort to distance from the legacy of Nazarbayev, whose tenure was marked by both economic progress and allegations of authoritarian governance. Adilet's campaign focuses on themes of justice, economic growth, and improved public services. In Almaty, the capital's largest city, extensive electoral signage supporting Adilet has been visible throughout the preceding weeks. Analysts predict that the party could secure a substantial share of the vote, potentially leading to a dominant position in the Kurultai. Smaller opposition parties, however, remain hopeful of making an impact despite their limited resources and visibility. International observers, including nearly 80 parliamentarians and staff from approximately 30 countries, are scheduled to monitor the election process. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly has confirmed their participation, underscoring the significance of the event on the global stage. Their presence is intended to ensure transparency and adherence to democratic principles during the voting process. As the election unfolds, the outcome will have far-reaching implications for Kazakhstan's political trajectory. It will not only shape the immediate legislative agenda but also influence the direction of governance in the coming years. The results will be closely watched by domestic stakeholders and international partners alike, as they seek to understand how this election fits into the broader narrative of Kazakhstan's evolving political identity.