How will the Law and Justice split affect Polish politics?

A major internal rift within Poland’s largest right-wing opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), has created deep divisions among its leadership and supporters, reshaping the country’s political landscape. This is the most significant split in PiS’s 25-year history and comes amid growing challenges from both the current governing coalition and emerging radical right alternatives. The division, rooted in ideological differences over the party’s future direction, has raised questions about whether PiS can remain a unified force in upcoming elections or if it will fracture further, potentially opening the door for other right-wing actors to gain ground. The split emerged after months of increasing tension between long-time PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who had previously held the top executive position in the party before stepping down in 2023. Morawiecki, along with his allies, represented a more technocratic and economically focused wing of the party, advocating for policies centered around improving public services, fostering economic growth, and maintaining a pragmatic approach toward European Union relations. In contrast, Kaczyński and his supporters pushed for a harder-line stance on cultural and social issues, emphasizing traditional values, national sovereignty, and a stronger rejection of EU influence. The ideological divide became particularly pronounced as PiS’s popularity waned following the October 2023 parliamentary elections, which resulted in the formation of a governing coalition led by Donald Tusk of the liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO). Since then, PiS has struggled to regain momentum, facing competition from two rising radical right groups: the free-market-oriented Confederation (Konfederacja) and the ultra-nationalist Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP). These groups have drawn support from voters disillusioned with mainstream politics and have begun to challenge PiS’s dominance on the right. The internal conflict reached a breaking point earlier this year when Kaczyński appointed Przemysław Czarnek, a prominent figure aligned with the traditionalist-conservative faction, as PiS’s candidate for prime minister in the upcoming 2027 parliamentary elections. This move was interpreted as a clear endorsement of the more hardline approach favored by Kaczyński and his allies. Morawiecki and his supporters, however, viewed this as a betrayal of the party’s broader interests and a step away from a more inclusive and economically viable strategy. Despite the rift, some analysts argue that the emergence of a potential new centre-right party under Morawiecki’s leadership could strengthen the opposition’s chances in the next election cycle. If Morawiecki and his allies manage to form a cohesive alternative to PiS, they might attract voters frustrated with the current government and the extreme positions of the radical right. Such a scenario would complicate the political calculus for both the governing coalition and the remaining forces on the right. The situation has left PiS in a precarious position. With its support base eroding and internal divisions deepening, the party faces the risk of becoming a fragmented entity unable to mount a united challenge against the current administration or the more extreme right-wing alternatives. Meanwhile, the governing coalition, led by Tusk, has benefited from the instability within PiS, though it remains uncertain whether this advantage will translate into lasting electoral success. As the 2027 election approaches, all eyes will be on whether PiS can reconcile its internal divisions or if the party will splinter further, paving the way for new players to emerge on the right. The outcome could significantly alter the trajectory of Polish politics in the coming years.