Fuel prices jump in Poland as final government crisis measures end

The sudden rise in fuel prices across Poland on Wednesday marked the end of a government initiative aimed at shielding consumers from soaring energy costs driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Known as the "Ceny Paliwa Niżej" (CPN) program, the policy was implemented in late March and officially expired on July 1, 2026. As the final elements of the package were phased out, retailers adjusted their pricing, leading to noticeable increases at many fuel stations. According to data collected by E-petrol, a fuel price monitoring service, the reintroduction of the standard 23% VAT rate on fuel contributed significantly to the price hikes. Some stations recorded increases of nearly 14%, with petrol prices rising by approximately 0.80–0.86 zloty (around €0.19–€0.20) per litre, pushing them into the range of 6.79–7.05 zloty per litre.

The CPN program, which initially cost the state budget around 4.7 billion zloty, was designed to mitigate the impact of volatile global markets. It included several key components: reducing the VAT on petrol and diesel from 23% to 8%, lowering excise duties to EU minimum levels, and imposing a ceiling on retail fuel prices. These measures were introduced in response to a sharp spike in oil prices, largely attributed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The government's goal was to protect consumers, particularly drivers and transport operators, who faced significant financial strain as fuel costs soared.

As the program neared its conclusion, the government began phasing out its elements. The excise duty reductions expired on June 15, followed by the VAT cuts and price caps ending on June 30. This gradual removal allowed for a controlled transition back to normal market conditions. However, the abrupt end of these protections led to immediate price adjustments. Analysts noted that while the full extent of the price increases would likely stabilize over time, the initial surge reflected the loss of the subsidies that had previously kept prices artificially low.

Minister of Energy Miłosz Motyka addressed the situation in an interview with TVN24, explaining that the inflation rate remained below economic forecasts, even as fuel prices climbed. He emphasized that the program had successfully cushioned consumers against the worst effects of the energy crisis. Despite the current price rises, Motyka expressed confidence that further declines were possible if geopolitical tensions ease. He pointed to recent diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran as a potential catalyst for continued downward pressure on fuel prices.

In addition to the immediate economic implications, the decision to end the CPN program also raised questions about long-term policy direction. A separate proposal under consideration involves a windfall tax on fuel companies that profited excessively from the energy crisis. This one-time levy, which requires parliamentary approval and the president’s signature, aims to recoup some of the lost revenue and prevent excessive profit margins. The government estimates that this measure could generate around 4 billion zloty, with state-owned company Orlen expected to contribute the majority of the tax base.

Meanwhile, the political landscape remains complex, with other issues dominating public discourse. For instance, the ongoing legal proceedings against former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro have drawn attention from officials, including Motyka, who commented on the case during his appearance on TVN24. While these developments are distinct from the fuel price issue, they highlight the broader challenges facing the government in balancing economic stability with judicial accountability.