As Baghdad tries to please Trump, Iran tells Iraqi militias not to disarm

Baghdad's efforts to align with U.S. interests have intensified tensions with Iran, as the Islamic Republic urged Iraqi militias to retain their arms despite a looming deadline for disarmament. On August 10, Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, a key arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, met with Iraqi militia leaders and officials from the Coordination Framework, a powerful alliance of Iran-backed Shia political parties that dominates Iraq’s parliament. Qaani reportedly emphasized the need for these groups to maintain their weapons, challenging the Iraqi government’s push for disarmament. Qaani’s visit occurred just days before the Iraqi government announced a September 30 deadline for all non-state militias to surrender their arms. This move comes as U.S. troops prepare to vacate their final bases in Iraq on the same date. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, known for his pro-American stance, did not meet with Qaani. A senior official close to Zaidi told MBN that the premier sought a political rather than military relationship with Iran. Meanwhile, internal challenges within the Iraqi government have further complicated matters. Zaidi’s cabinet, sworn in three months prior, still lacks nine ministers, including critical roles in defense and interior. The delay stems from U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Iraq and Syria, Tom Barrack, blocking potential appointees. Barrack’s vetting extends beyond direct combat groups to include political figures linked to former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Al-Maliki’s bloc, though lacking its own militia, has historically governed alongside factions favored by Washington. In January, President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would cease support for Iraq if al-Maliki were reinstated, citing his role in creating “total chaos” during the 2014 rise of ISIS. Barrack’s actions reinforce a policy Trump previously outlined, signaling that alignment with militias disqualifies political candidates. Amid this diplomatic struggle, Zaidi has proposed legislation to centralize weapon control under the government. The bill aims to eliminate the legal ambiguity that has allowed the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of Shia militias formally integrated into the Iraqi security apparatus in 2016, to function independently. However, the success of such legislation hinges on parliamentary approval, which remains uncertain given the composition of the legislature. These developments occur against the backdrop of escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The war began on February 28, when Israeli and U.S. strikes targeted Iran, killing its supreme leader. His funeral procession through Iraq’s holy cities of Najaf and Karbala drew widespread condemnation, with crowds chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” Despite Zaidi’s attempts to steer Iraq away from Iranian influence, the nation remains deeply entangled with its neighbor. Compounding economic pressures, the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which Iraq once exported most of its oil, remains largely blocked. This has led to a dramatic decline in oil revenues, which account for nearly 90% of the national budget. Public sector wages have suffered as a result, forcing Baghdad to sell oil at steep discounts, up to $30 per barrel below market rates, to Abu Dhabi’s state-owned ADNOC. The company transports the crude out of the strait via alternative routes, highlighting the precarious financial situation facing the Iraqi government.