This is what we should really be afraid of when it comes to Russia’s navy

The eye-catching incident on Tuesday, when the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots near a passing British yacht, was reckless and unprofessional. But it was not a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions. Nor was it likely direct retaliation for the Royal Marines boarding the unflagged “shadow fleet” vessel Smyrtos days earlier.

Sir Keir Starmer was right to downplay the encounter as clumsy rather than a Russian conspiracy. But the drama exposes a fragile reality .

The two Royal Navy offshore patrol vessels involved in the incident, HMS Tyne and HMS Mersey , will leave naval service in April 2028, further cutting the size of our beleaguered fleet . Likely budget cuts over the next few years will further curtail active operations in our home waters, while chronic uncertainty over defence plans threatens to leave the UK even more vulnerable.

Shorts

Even without Russian navy vessels loitering outside of our waters, it would be a pretty ugly picture.

The Government recognised last year in its own National Security Strategy that any island nation needs to be able to control the maritime environment around it. For Britain, this requires monitoring and managing who and what enters our waters and airspace.

The UK remains critically dependent upon the sea . Ninety per cent of imports come in by ship, including almost half of our food and energy. Three-quarters of our total gas supply comes via subsea pipelines, while high-voltage underwater cables bring offshore energy ashore and connect our national grid to Europe.

With such dependency comes considerable vulnerability, one actively being targeted by Moscow.

Moreover, 99 per cent of our digital communications, vital to our status as a global financial centre and to our modern lives, are carried on underwater fibre-optic cables.

As we have seen with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, any interruption to maritime trade can quickly cause major economic difficulties.

Royal Marines boarding the Smyrtos in the English Channel. The ship sailed under a false Cameroonian flag (Photo: LPhot Hutchins/Royal Navy)

The First Sea Lord, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, said last year that there has been “a 30 per cent increase in Russian incursion in our waters just in the last two years”. He also said that it is “what’s going on under the waves that most concerns me”.

The Russian navy represents a significant threat to the UK, despite its struggles against Ukraine in the Black Sea. Vladimir Putin has promised significant investments, but even without them, Russia’s Northern Fleet, based in Murmansk , is home to a huge concentration of nuclear weapons and is the base of a fleet of nuclear attack submarines and underwater spy ships.

The UK’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review said we must be prepared to deter maritime incidents similar to the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the cutting of undersea data cables in UK and international waters.

These scenarios are of far greater concern to our national security than a single Russian frigate like the Admiral Grigorovich operating in and around British waters. To deter and defend against them requires a credible maritime surveillance and response capability, including ships, aircraft and submarines that are ready to act at short notice.

But this has been hollowed out in recent decades.

In addition to the fate of the offshore patrol vessels, of particular concern is our dwindling fleet of ageing frigates, which may go out of service before their replacements enter service. Most of our nuclear attack submarines are also stuck in port, awaiting refit or repair.

Meanwhile, the RAF only operates nine Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, insufficient to guarantee adequate support for operations in home waters, while providing continuous cover for our strategic nuclear deterrent.

Royal Navy warships and helicopters have previously tracked the Admiral Grigorovich in the English Channel and North Sea (Photo: Royal Navy)

Russia knows all this, and Putin will feel emboldened by our current weakness.

After John Healey resigned as defence secretary last week, his successor, Dan Jarvis, has the opportunity to take the tough decisions his predecessor avoided. The focus should be on deterrence and the protection of home waters and the North Atlantic against Russian threats to our undersea infrastructure and maritime supply lines.

This is a core national security mission, not a secondary naval task.

I was asked in Parliament on Monday what this focus could look like. I said that first we must get more ships and submarines out to sea, and that rumoured cuts to running and maintenance costs are a fool’s errand.

Secondly, I said the Ministry of Defence must treat the looming frigate and patrol vessel gap as an operational risk, not an accounting problem. And finally, I said the UK’s Defence Investment Plan should clearly set out plans for a sustained programme of naval shipbuilding.

This would avoid repeati…