Switzerland is set to vote on a plan to impose an unprecedented cap on its population in a move that could lead to a complete ban on migration.
A referendum is being held this weekend on a proposal put forward by the anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party (SVP) to cap the population at 10 million.
But the prospect of what would be a world first cap on population numbers has sparked controversy and exposed deep divisions over migration.
What is being proposed?
Sunday’s referendum will decide whether to cap Switzerland’s population at 10 million. Currently, the country’s population is about 9.1 million.
A “yes” vote would force the Swiss government to cap the population at 10 million by 2050.
The SVP’s proposal would force a tightening of rules on issues such as asylum and family reunification if the population hit 9.5 million.
Posters campaigning for the “yes” vote on an initiative launched by the hard-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) (Photo: Sebastien Bozon / AFP via Getty Images)
If the population reached 10 million, the Swiss government would have to scrap international accords that encourage population growth.
That includes an agreement with the European Union (EU) allowing free movement of people.
Switzerland’s population has grown from 7.3 million when free movement of people with the EU was introduced in 2002.
Foreign nationals now make up nearly 28 per cent of the population, with most of the new arrivals arriving from the EU.
What do supporters say?
Supporters of the plan say an expanding population is straining local infrastructure, roads and public transport and forcing up rents and crime.
Because of the long-term horizon, some argue the immediate economic and demographic fallout would be limited.
“Switzerland is a small country with a limited territory, and it has experienced the highest population growth in recent years,” SVP lawmaker Yvan Pahud told Reuters.
Bernard Bapst, a People’s Party lawmaker in the Fribourg region and a former customs official, rejected any risk to security and said “various forms of criminality” have risen since Switzerland adopted an open-border policy.
The 38-country Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has reported that Switzerland had a foreign-born population of 32 per cent as of 2024.
It trails only Luxembourg, where more than half of residents were foreign-born, and Australia.
Thomas Matter, another SVP lawmaker and banker, claimed only one in 10 immigrants were workers with sought-after skills and that GDP per head had declined since the increase in immigration.
And what do opponents argue?
Critics say a yes vote would harm Switzerland’s close ties with the EU, and that labour, expertise and skills comes from foreigners in sectors like healthcare, finance, pharmaceuticals and technology.
Business critics point to the damage they say the population cap could inflict on one of Europe’s most resilient economies.
The federal Government and Parliament oppose the idea, with EconomieSuisse, a leading association of Swiss businesses, blasted it as an “absurd proposal” threatening the country’s security and prosperity.
According to a 2023 study by Avenir Suisse, 39 per cent of all company founders in Switzerland were foreigners.
The hard-right SVP, which has pushed for the change, is renowned for its opposition to immigration (Photo: Sebastien Bozon/AFP via Getty Images)
Rene Schwok, a political science professor at the University of Geneva, said a “yes” victory would strain Switzerland’s ties with the EU, its largest trading partner, and cloud the future of foreign investment.
Claude Maurer, chief economist at BAK Economics, a research institute, said if Bern abandoned its bilateral accords, Swiss economic growth between 2028 and 2045 would be 7.1 per cent lower.
Switzerland faces an aging population, with the proportion of Swiss aged between 20 and 64 set to decline from 60 per cent to 56 per cent and those over 65 to rise to 27 per cent from 21 per cent by 2055, meaning migrants are an important source of tax growth,
Over the same timeline, the proportion of people aged over 65 will climb to 27 per cent from 21 per cent currently.
How is the vote forecast to go?
Recent polling suggests it will be tight.
The most recent poll, carried out between 19 May and 27 May, showed 47 per cent in favour of the plan to curb migrants and 52 per cent were against.
But support for the proposal has dropped as the campaign has progressed.
In April, another poll showed 52 per cent would vote yes, the highest support in favour for the plan.
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