Given the uneven course of the Russian economy during the first five months of 2026, Russian authorities, especially President Vladimir Putin, were keen to minimize the impacts of any possible stagnation at the 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
When asked by a reporter about Russia’s stagnating economy, Putin avoided a detailed response and paraphrased American novelist Mark Twain , saying "rumors of my death [i.e., the Russian economy] have been greatly exaggerated."
Although Putin avoided any reference to the war in Ukraine during his plenary speech, he did address the domestic economy. According to Kommersant , Putin made clear that he did not “foresee any immediate dangers to the economy currently or in the future.” Putin added that “we have essentially come down to the same baseline that Eurozone countries have been living with for years. I am confident that our upward and forward progress is guaranteed.”
However, this opinion differed from the recent GDP growth estimate released by his own Ministry of Economy (MinEcon), which projected stagnation for the remainder of the year. In May, the ministry created concern when it lowered its growth estimate from 1.3% to 0.4%.
It is important to note that there has been some disagreement with Russian growth projections. For example, in contrast with MinEcon’s figures, in April the IMF raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia "to 1.1% from January's estimate of 0.8%, due to higher oil and other commodity prices resulting from the Middle East crisis.”
As to the budget, while Putin acknowledged the deficit was growing, he clarified it was not as bad when compared with Russia’s counterparts in the West. For example, he acknowledged that Russia’s budget deficit is 2.6 % of GDP but made sure to point out that the EU’s is 3.1% and that the U.S. is 5.9%.
Putin’s attitude contrasts with some officials in Russia's Finance Ministry and central bank, who have expressed concerns about Russia’s ability to continue to finance growing defense expenditures. Early last week, Bloomberg reported that these ministries suggest “that spending on the war in Ukraine is on an unaffordable path.” Interestingly, Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Chair, was absent from SPIEF after reportedly calling in sick despite being scheduled to moderate several panels.
Given the apparent difference of opinion among Russia’s leading economic policymakers, several Putin administration officials actively sought to allay concerns regarding the economy. For example, Minister of Finance Anton Suliyanov tried to smooth concerns regarding the budget shortfall when he announced that the Russian budget might add nearly one trillion rubles of revenues as a result of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz .
In addition, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Maxim Oreshkin reiterated Putin’s message clarifying that there are "no gaps" in the country's economy. Meanwhile, he asserted that “the European economy has grown by 3% over the past three years, while Russia's has grown by 10% over the same period.”
The theme for this year’s event, which ran through the weekend, was “Pragmatic Dialogue: The Path to a Stable Future.” Clearly, showcasing Russia’s stated commitment to sovereignty and multipolarity was the Kremlin’s preferred agenda.
For example, according to the Moscow Times , Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said SPIEF has now become a meeting focused on “sovereign countries” while ridiculing Moscow’s “globalist rivals” who usually attend the fashionable Davos Forum in Switzerland.
Dmitriev emphasized to the Moscow Times , an independent English and Russian-language online newspaper that “the countries of the Global South are building up their economic strength, actively moving toward partnership with Russia and will be strongly represented.”
The conference, which attracted over 20,000 guests from approximately 130 countries, has been referred to as the "Russian Davos.” In its heyday, it attracted investors and policymakers from around the globe who were interested in Russia’s growing economy. Yet the larger delegations now are from Africa , Asia, and Eurasia, while Western countries are increasingly absent since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Prior to the event, Russian representatives and state media were emphasizing the return of an official delegation from the United States. However, Robert Agee , head of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), dispelled any thoughts of an official delegation attending the event.
Russian media had also initially touted an official German business delegation. Nevertheless, the German news outlet DW said the only German (unofficial) delegation to SPIEF was comprised of “several lawmakers from Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.” Indeed, Russia’s Dmitriev confirmed the AfD representatives were in St. Petersburg to discuss concerns pertaining to investigation…
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