The Pakistani government last week presented a draft budget to lawmakers that hikes defense spending by 18% to 3 trillion rupees ($10.8 billion).
Pakistan's finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, said the increase was intended to make the country "invincible due to the uncertainty in the region." Analysts say key considerations are evolving military technologies and emerging threats.
"Future conflicts will no longer be confined to two adversaries," said Islamabad-based defense analyst Maria Sultan. "They will be shaped by weapons and technology flowing from multiple countries, fought across land, air, cyber and electronic domains simultaneously."
A changing security environment
Sultan told DW that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as last year's India-Pakistan conflict — which brought the nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of all-out war — have reshaped how military planners think.
In May 2025, New Delhi launched "Operation Sindoor" in retaliation for a deadly mass shooting at Pahalgam , a popular resort town in India-administered Kashmir, in which at least 26 mostly Indian Hindu tourists were killed.
India said the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, considered a terrorist organization by the UN, had carried out the attack. New Delhi also accused Islamabad of backing the group, with the Pakistani government denying the allegation.
India and Pakistan both claim Kashmir in its entirety, but each country only controls a section of territory, making the Muslim-majority region a flashpoint in the larger India-Pakistan geopolitical rivalry.
The clashes following the Pahalgam attack raised concerns about strategic stability in South Asia and sparked debate about the limits of nuclear deterrence between rival nuclear powers.
"The conflict demonstrated that atomic weapons do not necessarily prevent conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold," said Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank.
War risks on multiple fronts
Pakistan's military planners are grappling with a security environment shaped by India's continuing military modernization and the growing role of drones, cyber capabilities and precision-guided weapons in modern warfare, according to Cheema.
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The challenge is not limited to Pakistan's eastern border with India.
Islamabad is also embroiled in a conflict with neighboring Afghanistan , particularly in its western provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
In February, Islamabad declared it was in "open war" with Kabul, following a rise in militant attacks on civilians and security forces inside Pakistan.
Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of failing to prevent militant groups from launching attacks on Pakistan from Afghan territory. Kabul rejects those claims.
Pakistan's defense budget overshadowed by India
The spending boost also comes as Islamabad continues to navigate the conditions of a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program that helped the country avoid default and restore macroeconomic stability after Pakistan's 2022-23 economic crisis .
The government aims to transform the Pakistani economy from stabilization to growth through tax reforms, tariff rationalization and measures aimed at boosting exports and investment. The IMF held pre-budget consultations with Pakistani authorities, with the country's fiscal framework and revenue assumptions at the center of program-related talks.
Pakistan's economy grew to about $452 billion in the fiscal year ending in June. While India has a much larger population, boasting roughly 5.7 times more people than Pakistan, this data indicates its GDP is more than nine times larger than Pakistan's — around $4.15 trillion.
There is a similar disparity between the two nuclear rivals' defense budgets. India's annual defense spending is estimated at around $86 billion — nearly eight times that of Pakistan's.
Pakistani military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry acknowledged the gap.
"We don't have the luxury of unlimited money at our disposal," he told US-based Bloomberg, noting that Pakistan maintains a military budget that is "a fraction" of its neighbor's.
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Khurram Husain, a columnist and economic commentator, noted that Pakistan has historically prioritized defense spending — even during periods of economic stress.
"It is a delicate balancing act for the government under the current IMF program, but the IMF also understands the ground realities, and I think they know defense expenditure is non-negotiable, so they push more reforms on other sectors," Husain said.
Fiscal strain meets security priorities
Some economists and p…
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