Nolte: Trump’s Redistricting Moves Give GOP a Shot at Holding the House

People laughed at President Trump when he began to push Republican-dominated states to do what Democrat-run states had already done decades ago: redistrict their state’s congressional seats to their partisan advantage. The usual-usuals among the Republican Party’s oh-so-smartest assured us this would backfire. But Trump understood that Democrats had long ago redistricted to within an inch of their lives and that Republicans hadn’t. The advantage in that war could only go to the GOP.

You see, Illinois has 17 total congressional seats, and 14 are held by Democrats when only 54 percent of Illinoisans voted Democrat in the most recent statewide elections.

Maryland has eight congressional seats and seven go to Democrats, when Democrats only make up about 60 percent of the voting population.

New York has 26 congressional seats. Democrats hold 21 of those seats, even though the state is only about 55 percent Democrat.

And on and on it goes like that in Blue States, especially in the Northeast.

So Trump decided to act like a Democrat, and Democrats were so spooked that Virginia’s new Democrat governor, Abigail Spanberger, broke a major campaign promise not to redistrict. She tried. The state’s Democrats tried. They tried so hard that they broke the law. Thankfully, the State’s Supreme Court put a stop to it.

Trump had his own setback in Indiana, where squishy Republican state senators refused to redistrict. As always, Trump got the last word. Most of those state senators lost their primaries to Trump-backed candidates who will undoubtedly redistrict in time for the next round of U.S. House races in 2028.

However you look at it, Trump won the redistricting war by picking up 16 seats to the Democrats’ pick up of just six — a net GOP gain of ten. And for that reason, and that reason alone, as of today, holding the House is not only possible, but based on the latest Cook Political Report, Republicans have a real shot:

The magic number is 218, which means Republicans need only to win six of the 18 races listed as toss-ups.

Democrats will need to win 12 of those 18 races.

Had Trump listened to all the “smart people,” Republicans would have zero chance to hold on. Fortune favors the bold, as they say.

Now, to be honest, I’d still rather be the Democrats in this scenario. Midterms are midterms, and midterms do not like incumbents, and they especially do not like incumbents when gas prices are around $4.00.

But even if the GOP loses the House in 2026, more red states will redistrict next year (including Indiana) and that will only benefit the GOP come the 2028 elections. Then, before the next election cycle, the U.S. Census will dictate which states gain or lose House seats (and electoral votes) in 2030. That will also benefit the GOP, especially if illegal aliens are not counted as they were in 2020. Hopefully, President JD Vance will ensure the 2030 census is not rigged.

There is just no question, though, that with Normal People fleeing all these Democrat-run states, Democrats will be the ultimate losers in the next census.

Also worth watching is how conservatives are rising around the world: in England, across Europe, and most recently in Peru. Could this translate to a stronger turnout for Republicans in 2026 — for the sane party? Something is happening. Something good. There’s no question about that.