Experts warn of severe wildfire risks as South Africa braces for dangerous conditions

Landowners, farmers and rural communities across South Africa are being urged to prepare for what could be a destructive wildfire season, with experts warning that a combination of dry conditions, strong winds and the expected return of El Niño could fuel widespread veldfires in the coming months.

AfriForum has sounded the alarm following the release of the National Disaster Management Centre's 2026 winter seasonal risk profile, which indicates elevated wildfire risks across several provinces, including Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and North West.

The warning comes as large parts of the country remain covered in dense vegetation following favourable summer rainfall, creating conditions that could rapidly turn dangerous as temperatures rise and winter winds intensify.

Tarien Cooks, Disaster Management Specialist at AfriForum, said the combination of weather conditions and abundant vegetation should not be underestimated.

"Large parts of South Africa have experienced excellent vegetation and veld conditions following the good summer rains. While this is good news for grazing conditions, it also means that there are now large amounts of combustible material in rural areas. In combination with above-normal temperatures, strong winds and the expected development of El Niño conditions, the risk of severe wildfires later in the winter and during the spring is significant."

According to the National Disaster Management Centre, wildfire conditions ranging from medium-high to high risk are expected throughout winter and into early spring, particularly in provinces that traditionally experience destructive veldfires.

The report warns that above-normal temperatures, dry vegetation and stronger wind conditions could create an environment where fires spread rapidly and become difficult to contain.

In addition to wildfire concerns, authorities have highlighted the risk posed by powerful windstorms in parts of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. Strong mountain winds associated with approaching cold fronts could intensify fire behaviour and accelerate the spread of flames across large areas.

While fire remains the primary concern, some regions could simultaneously face severe weather-related flooding. Parts of the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape remain vulnerable to localised flooding caused by heavy rainfall, flash floods and cut-off low-pressure systems.

The seasonal outlook also points to the strengthening of El Niño conditions by spring, with forecasts indicating that the weather pattern could persist into summer. Historically, El Niño has been associated with hotter, drier and windier conditions across much of South Africa, increasing the likelihood of drought and severe wildfire outbreaks.

Cooks urged landowners to take preventative action before conditions deteriorate further.

"Landowners should make adequate preparations by maintaining firebreaks, removing excessive combustible material around homes and infrastructure, ensuring that firefighting equipment is operational and actively engaging with local fire protection associations. Early preparation can significantly limit the risk of losing homes, livestock, game, grazing and other valuable assets."

AfriForum has also encouraged communities to closely monitor weather alerts issued by the South African Weather Service and implement precautionary measures before the peak of the wildfire season arrives.

The Star

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