Ireland won’t be in the right state to face rugby’s greatest challenge

When Leo Cullen spoke to the media on Wednesday after naming his team for tonight's BKT United Rugby Championship final, the Leinster head coach was quick to remind people about the last time he was sitting in that very seat at Croke Park.

His side’s 31-14 hammering against Munster back in October had been their third defeat from four games to start the season, already surpassing the two losses they had in the entire 2024/25 title-winning campaign.

Cullen remarked on Wednesday that if you had predicted back in October that Leinster would be back at Croker for another URC final in June, people would have considered you "crazy".

To suggest it would be "crazy" that a squad of Leinster’s talent could pick up the pieces over the course of the season is over-egging the pudding a bit, but their route back to the URC final has at least been the toughest they’ve had it for a long time.

A crazier suggestion would have been for the Bulls to return to the final for the fourth time in five seasons.

The South Africans actually started the season well under new head coach Johan Ackermann, winning three of their first four before entering a tailspin either side of Christmas, losing seven games in a row across URC and Champions Cup, conceding 43 to the Lions, 46 to Bordeaux-Begles, 50 to Northampton and an embarrassing 61 to Bristol Bears during that run.

Last week, Bulls out-half Handre Pollard said there was "nothing specific" to their remarkable turnaround, which has seen them win eight URC games on the spin to book their place in this evening’s decider, but as they arrive in Dublin they look a world away from the side that were leaking tries and defeats in the winter.

Speaking on the RTÉ Rugby podcast this week , their former head coach Jake White (above) – who brought the Pretorians to three URC finals – said this version of the Bulls were better equipped than ever to break their habit of losing on the big day.

They never got going in last year’s final at Croke Park, conceding three tries within the opening 25 minutes, and barely landing a glove on Leinster throughout.

It’s worth noting they had a hefty list of injuries that day; Springbok loosehead Gerhard Steenekamp and back row pair Elrigh Louw and Cameron Hanekom all missed that final due to injury, while World Cup winners Handre Pollard and wing Kurt-Lee Arendse were both playing overseas.

Both sides are heavily changed from last year’s decider. Seven of the Bulls team that day continue in the starting XV, while just six of Leinster’s starters from that day are picked again.

While Tadhg Furlong, Caelan Doris and Jamison Gibson-Park are available this year, Jordie Barrett is back in New Zealand, and Andrew Porter and last year’s man of the match Ryan Baird miss out due to injury, as does RG Snyman, who featured off the bench.

One of the reasons why Leinster’s path to the final this year was so difficult has been their injury problems, specifically in the front row.

Porter, Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle have all spent considerable time out of action, and all three are missing for this final, leaving inexperienced pair Jerry Cahir (below) and Alex Usanov to lock out the left side of the scrum against the Bulls this week.

Both players only made their provincial debuts in late October against Zebre, and how they cope against Francois Klopper and the colossal Wilco Louw will have a major say in who lifts the trophy tonight.

Leinster actually dominated the scrum when these side met in the final last year, but they have also been on the receiving end of some hidings up front against the Bulls in recent years, while Steenekamp, Louw and hooker Johan Grobbelaar were part of the Springbok scrum that destroyed Ireland at Aviva Stadium last November.

One interesting narrative to this decider is that in recent years, the Bulls have been to the URC what Leinster have been to the Champions Cup, reaching the final for the fourth time in five years, but never getting their hands on the trophy.

It’s only four weeks since Leinster suffered their all too familiar Champions Cup decider disappointment, as they capitulated against Bordeaux in Bilbao, and because of that failure they are in an unenviable position this evening, needing to win to salvage their season, even if it won’t fully satisfy their critics.

The worry is that winning a Champions Cup, or even a URC, will be even tougher again next year, with the French sides continuing to dominate Europe, while the return of some big-name Springboks to their URC sides in a World Cup year will be making them even stronger again.

Leinster, meanwhile, will be losing several first team regulars; James Lowe (above) is the most high-profile departure, while there will be no big-money replacement for Rieko Ioane. Experienced pair Luke McGrath and Rabah Slimani are also departing, while Ciarán Frawley’s move to Connacht has muddied the waters in terms of their out-half picture.

Cullen has struggled to settle on whether Sam P…