AIMIM's alliance politics: Owaisi sets stage to do a Bihar in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections

AIMIM supremo Asaduddin Owaisi (PTI file photo)

NEW DELHI: Asaduddin Owaisi , the president of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen ( AIMIM ), is all set to do a Bihar in Uttar Pradesh. Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are nearly 8-9 months away and all key stakeholders are busy firming up their strategies for the high-stakes contest.

But the AIMIM president is already in action mode with a tried and tested strategy that can put some opposition parties in a Catch-22 situation. Owaisi on Sunday held a rally in UP’s Bahraich, a strategically chosen district, to not just launch his party’s UP campaign but also to throw a now-familiar challenge to the opposition parties: “We are ready to join hands with you to prevent the BJP from returning to power provided we are treated with respect and accorded equal status within that alliance.”

While on the one hand Owaisi reached out to the opposition parties, on the other he threw an open challenge to the Samajwadi Party by announcing Shaukat Ali as the AIMIM candidate from the Matera assembly constituency in Bahraich. The seat at present is with the SP which is the main opposition player in the state. Now, those who have followed the politics of the AIMIM chief would have a sense of deja vu. He has followed the same template in Bihar and Maharashtra.

Let’s rewind and go back to the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.

AIMIM’s Bihar Playbook

The AIMIM added a new and interesting dimension to politics in the run up to the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar. In a first of its kind, they held a protest demanding their party’s inclusion in the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan alliance.

The AIMIM workers held a demonstration with drums outside the residence of former CM Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad demanding space in the opposition INDIA bloc to “prevent a split of secular votes”. The unique protest not just made for good optics but also put immense pressure on the INDIA bloc parties - the RJD and the Congress- who eventually did not agree to the AIMIM alliance. The AIMIM contested on 28 seats and won 5 with a vote share of 1.89%, while the INDIA bloc allies were decimated by the NDA.

Failed Maharashtra outreach

Earlier in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections also, the AIMIM reached out to the opposition Maha Vikas Agadhi for an alliance.

The AIMIM state president wrote a letter to MVA members stating they were open to alliance talks. However, the Congress, Shiv Sena and the NCP rejected AIMIM’s outreach. The party eventually contested 16 assembly seats alone but was successful in retaining only one of the two assembly seats it had won in the 2019 polls.

UP strategy

Now, let’s shift our focus back to Uttar Pradesh. First, let’s discuss Owaisi’s choice of Bahraich for his launch rally.

The Matera assembly constituency in Bahraich is a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party and not the BJP, which is the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh. If Owaisi wants to defeat the BJP, shouldn’t he be logically targeting the BJP first? But Owaisi chose SP stronghold to launch his campaign because his primary objective is to woo the Muslim voters of the state who have for long backed Akhilesh Yadav’s party. Owaisi’s speech in Matera targeted BJP’s Yogi Adityanath government and Akhilesh Yadav in equal measure. "I am appealing to the people of Uttar Pradesh. Support AIMIM; we would rather die than trade away our honour and your affection," Owaisi said at the rally. Questioning the development work carried out by elected representatives in the area, Owaisi said, "What have the Samajwadi Party leaders whom you voted for done for the development of the area? They did nothing."

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Continuing with his attack on Samajwadi Party, he alleged that despite receiving votes from the public, local representatives had failed to ensure basic facilities and claimed that even a hospital had not been constructed in the area.

Owaisi said the youth had become politically aware and urged people to support AIMIM. The second reason why the choice of Bahraich is a strategic decision is because it is a communally sensitive district and has a long-running political and historical contest over the legacy of Maharaja Suheldev and warrior-saint Syed Salar Masood Ghazi. During a recent visit to Bahraich, Uttar Pradesh minister Anil Rajbhar claimed that the dargah of Ghazi was originally a Surya Kund and said he would write to chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking an Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) survey. Anil Rajbhar also accused previous governments of glorifying “invaders” such as Ghazi while neglecting Maharaja Suheldev, who is celebrated among Rajbhars and several other OBC communities as the ruler who defeated Ghazi. Clearly, the issue has a great potential for polarisation and suits the hardline politics of Owaisi.

Owaisi’s opposition outreach: A well crafted strategy

Now, let’s come to the second part of Owaisi’s tried and tested strategy - a loud and open offer of alliance to t…