Perché la crisi dell'occupazione giovanile sta diventando globale

The youth jobs crisis is intensifying globally, with young people facing mounting challenges in securing stable employment. This issue has sparked unrest in multiple regions, including Kenya, Peru, Nepal, Indonesia, and the Philippines, where economic hardship and limited job prospects have driven youth onto the streets. Similar concerns have fueled protests in South Africa and Morocco, while in India, the issue has given rise to the Cockroach Janta Party, a movement initially launched as a satirical social media campaign that has since garnered national attention. China was among the first countries to highlight the severity of the youth unemployment problem. As university enrollment and graduate numbers surged faster than job creation, especially during periods of slower economic growth, young people faced prolonged job searches and underemployment. According to Reuters, the official urban unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24 in China reached 15.6% in May, marking the lowest level in 11 months. However, this figure remains three times higher than the overall unemployment rate of approximately 5%. Notably, since 2023, the statistics have excluded millions of university students, complicating comparisons with earlier data. The challenge extends beyond China, affecting numerous nations grappling with slow economic growth, declining social mobility, and increasing intergenerational inequality. In some cases, technological advancements and reduced hiring activity have weakened the connection between obtaining a university degree and securing a secure white-collar position. Additionally, fears surrounding artificial intelligence’s potential to eliminate entry-level jobs have further dampened optimism among young workers. While experts acknowledge AI as a possible contributor to stagnant youth employment, they emphasize that broader economic conditions remain the primary concern. Golo Henseke, an associate professor at University College London specializing in applied economics, notes that in the UK, graduate job postings have declined more sharply than non-graduate positions, and many of these roles are particularly vulnerable to automation. His findings suggest that areas with rapid AI adoption have seen slower growth in youth employment, although the effect remains modest compared to typical economic cycles. Sara Elder, a youth employment expert at the International Labour Organization, echoes this sentiment, stating that while AI may play a role, other factors such as insufficient job creation and employer bias against inexperienced candidates are more pressing. Without access to entry-level jobs, young people risk missing out on crucial experience needed for advancement, which can lead to long-term consequences such as reduced consumer spending, lower homeownership rates, and delayed family planning. These outcomes underscore the urgency of addressing the root causes of the crisis. Currently, however, the situation varies significantly across regions. Henseke observes that across Europe, there is no widespread youth jobs crisis, though the proportion of young people neither employed nor engaged in education or training has risen slightly in a few countries like Austria and Germany, while it has decreased in others. As the global economy continues to evolve, the intersection of technological change, economic stagnation, and structural inequalities presents complex challenges for policymakers and employers alike. Addressing the youth jobs crisis will require coordinated efforts to stimulate job creation, improve workforce readiness, and ensure equitable access to opportunities. The coming months will likely reveal how effectively different regions adapt to these evolving dynamics.