Chi prende le decisioni in Iran in mezzo alla guerra mortale con gli Stati Uniti?

Amid escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, questions swirl around who holds real authority in Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump recently suggested that Iran's leadership is fractured, claiming that even those in power do not know who is in charge. This assertion came after a temporary ceasefire failed to halt hostilities, with both nations continuing to engage in military actions against each other. The conflict, now nearing five months, has intensified with attacks on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. Despite initial U.S. claims that hardline factions in Iran were driving the aggression, Iranian officials have consistently maintained a unified stance on maintaining control over the strait. They have refused to allow vessels to pass through the southern route near Oman, insisting on using the northern route through Iranian waters. In response to the ongoing crisis, Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, proposed a third route for ships transiting through the strait during talks in Oman. However, this suggestion has yet to resolve the current standoff. A group of military and security commanders has emerged as a powerful force within Iran, showing a united front on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz. These individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Abdollahi, the head of the joint wartime command, and Ali Azmaei, the new commander of the IRGC Navy, have publicly reaffirmed their commitment to securing military advantages in the region. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, acting as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, plays a crucial role in coordinating decisions among various political factions within the Islamic Republic. Since taking over from the assassinated Ali Larijani in March, Zolghadr has issued limited statements emphasizing that negotiations should occur from a position of strength and without concessions. He has highlighted the strategic importance of the IRGC's presence in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated the significance of Tehran-backed allies in regions such as Lebanon. While Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian leads government ministries and manages economic policies, his influence appears less dominant compared to the military-security elite. Although he officially heads the security council, his ability to sway decisions seems constrained by the entrenched power of the IRGC and other security forces. Throughout his presidency, Pezeshkian has advocated for diplomatic solutions, yet his efforts have faced challenges due to the prevailing military posture within the country. As the situation continues to evolve, observers remain keenly interested in how Iran's internal dynamics might shift. The balance of power between civilian leadership and the military-security apparatus could significantly impact future developments in the region. With both sides engaged in protracted conflict, the clarity of command structures in Iran remains a focal point for analysts tracking the unfolding crisis.