I legami tra Stati Uniti e Oman si stanno deteriorando mentre Muscat cammina sulla corda tesa tra Washington e Teheran.

Oman faces mounting pressure as its delicate diplomatic balance between the United States and Iran continues to fray. President Donald Trump recently issued a veiled threat, warning that he would consider bombing Oman if it obstructed U.S. efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict with Iran and restore free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This marks another escalation in tensions between Washington and Muscat, which has long served as a key intermediary in Middle Eastern affairs. The dispute centers on the interpretation of a 14-point agreement signed in June 2023 in Islamabad, which aimed to establish an interim framework for ending hostilities and facilitating maritime transit through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) outlined a 60-day mechanism for cooperation between Oman and Iran, allowing both sides to negotiate terms for managing the waterway. However, the agreement collapsed as differences emerged over the meaning of specific clauses, particularly those related to the sovereignty and management of the strait. According to Marc Sievers, a former U.S. ambassador to Oman, the disagreement stemmed from divergent understandings of the language surrounding the strait. Iran interpreted the provisions as granting it exclusive control over the waterway, while the U.S. insisted that Iran must ensure unimpeded navigation and avoid using the strait as a tool for geopolitical leverage. The U.S. position, Sievers noted, was based on the principle of freedom of navigation, a cornerstone of American foreign policy. Meanwhile, Iran maintained that it had the sovereign right to manage the strait, a stance supported by its historical claims and regional alliances. Despite the breakdown of the MoU, Oman continued to engage in direct talks with Iran, seeking to broker a solution that would satisfy both parties. On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Muscat and Tehran had reached an “understanding” regarding the management of the strait and were working toward issuing a joint statement. This development reportedly upset Trump, who had previously expressed his displeasure with Oman’s approach. In May, Trump had warned that he would not accept any arrangement that gave Iran or Oman control over the strait, declaring that it was international waters and that Oman should behave like any other nation, or risk being bombed. Oman’s role as a neutral mediator has historically allowed it to maintain strong ties with both the U.S. and Iran. The kingdom has played a crucial part in de-escalating conflicts in the region, including during the 2016 crisis involving the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Its strategic location and longstanding diplomatic tradition have made it a trusted partner for both powers. However, Trump’s recent rhetoric threatens to undermine this carefully cultivated relationship. While some analysts suggest that such statements are typical of Trump’s volatile style, others warn that they could have real consequences for Oman’s autonomy and security. The U.S. has also intensified its economic pressure on Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to announce new sanctions targeting Iranian entities involved in the conflict. These measures come amid growing concerns over the impact of the ongoing standoff on global energy markets. Iran has responded with threats of retaliation, warning that countries supporting the U.S. economic campaign would be treated as adversaries. The situation has further complicated efforts to reach a lasting resolution, with both sides showing little willingness to compromise. As the crisis unfolds, Oman finds itself caught between competing pressures. While it continues to pursue diplomatic channels with Iran, it must also navigate the increasingly aggressive posture of the U.S. The coming days will likely determine whether Oman can maintain its role as a stabilizing force in the region or if the current tensions signal a deeper shift in the dynamics of Middle Eastern diplomacy.