La carota e il bastone: i governi promettono di ridurre i rimborsi dei prestiti agli studenti se rimani e di aumentare le sanzioni se te ne vai

New Zealand’s National Party has announced plans to reduce the compulsory student loan repayment rate for graduates who remain in the country, while imposing harsher penalties on those who leave without repaying. The policy, set to take effect from April 2027, aims to incentivize young people to stay and contribute to the economy, according to Finance Minister Nicola Willis. Under the proposed changes, the repayment rate will drop from 12 percent of income above $24,128 to 10 percent. This adjustment is projected to cost the government approximately $438 million over five years. The policy follows growing concerns over the high default rates among overseas borrowers. Currently, 93 percent of outstanding student loan debt is held by individuals living abroad, with only about 30 percent meeting their repayment obligations annually, compared to 95 percent of domestic borrowers. To address this, the National Party has pledged to increase the interest rate for overseas borrowers by 1 percentage point, bringing it to 6.6 percent. Additional tiered penalties will apply to those who fail to repay consistently, and restrictions will be placed on KiwiSaver withdrawals for overseas borrowers. Police will also be empowered to issue arrest warrants for “serious, sustained loan defaults.” Economists suggest that many young New Zealanders who have recently left the country did so in pursuit of better employment opportunities, rather than intentionally avoiding their financial responsibilities. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold noted that youth unemployment remains high, and many graduates are compelled to seek work wherever it is available. “You have to find a job where you can find one,” he said. “Youth unemployment is very high right now… you could understand that people that are in that part of the labour force, they're probably just following their noses in terms of where the opportunities are.” This sentiment aligns with findings from Infometrics, which reported that the number of permanent returns to New Zealand from overseas has risen by 6.1 percent over the past year, reaching just over 26,000. In contrast, the number of departures has declined by 2.7 percent, to nearly 38,000. Principal economist Brad Olsen attributed this trend to shifting dynamics in global labor markets, particularly in the United Kingdom. The UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme, which previously saw a steady influx of New Zealanders, has seen a sharp decline in applications, with visa approvals dropping to their lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. Olsen suggested that economic uncertainty and increased competition for jobs in major cities like London have discouraged some young Kiwis from pursuing opportunities abroad. “It’s one thing to earn London money and pay London costs, it’s quite another to pay London costs while you battle it out with so many others for the roles available,” he said. The trans-Tasman migration flow has also stabilized, reflecting broader shifts in how young people assess their options globally. Critics, however, argue that the proposed measures may not effectively address the root causes of student debt issues. Labour’s tertiary education spokesperson Shanan Halbert pointed out that National has historically raised tuition fees by up to 6 percent in recent years and is now proposing further increases. “That would allow fees to rise by up to 19 percent over three years,” he said. Meanwhile, the Victoria University Students Association president, Aidan Donoghue, expressed skepticism about the impact of the new penalties. He argued that graduates moving to countries with higher wages would likely ignore the threat of added interest, and warned that the strict enforcement measures could lead to unintended consequences, such as students fearing legal action for unpaid debts. At the same time, data released by the Tertiary Education Commission indicates that university enrollments are increasing, while participation in vocational and trade programs is declining. In April, university enrollment rose by 4 percent, primarily driven by growth at the University of Auckland and the University of Canterbury. Conversely, vocational education and training fell by 5 percent, with work-based apprenticeships decreasing by 10 percent compared to the previous year. These trends highlight ongoing challenges in balancing academic pathways with practical workforce development in New Zealand.