Susana Botár per N1: "Trump, Netanyahu, Rubio e Meta hanno cercato di aiutare Bolsonaro. Tutto è caduto su di loro".

Brazil’s left-wing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a historic victory in the presidential runoff, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro with a final margin of 51.75 percent to 48.25 percent. The Brazilian electoral court declared Lula the winner after counting nearly all votes, marking his fourth non-consecutive term as president. However, the result has been immediately challenged by Bolsonaro, who refused to concede defeat and vowed to seek legal annulment of the second round. The dispute centers on a last-minute decision by the Supreme Court to extend voting hours by two hours nationwide, a move Bolsonaro described as unacceptable and a fundamental alteration of the rules mid-game. The election took place on Sunday, October 25, 2026. According to Brazilian political analyst and lawyer Susana Botár, Lula’s win was driven by massive citizen mobilization, organized social movements, and a sophisticated digital campaign that engaged millions of voters. Botár noted that the outcome surprised even supporters, describing it as an extraordinary achievement for the country. She emphasized that Lula, considered the most dominant political figure in Brazil since the twentieth century, was uniquely positioned to achieve such a turnaround. His ability to reverse a deficit from the first round relied heavily on reducing abstention rates and minimizing invalid ballots. Botár stated that voter turnout showed a significant shift not seen in Brazil since 1998, aided partly by reduced fines for failing to vote. Lula’s strategy focused on mobilizing citizens who had not voted in the first round. Since most other candidates in the initial stage came from the right, winning over their base proved difficult. Instead, the campaign targeted new and previously disengaged voters. Students, universities, and various social movements played a crucial role in this effort. Botár described the coalition as organic, emerging directly from civil society rather than political bureaucracy. A key component of this mobilization was a digital infrastructure led by Lula’s ally André Janones. Janones established a WhatsApp channel that grew from approximately ten thousand members to nearly ten million followers in a very short period. Through this network, users were encouraged daily to share photos, videos, and messages supporting Lula on social media. This blend of offline organization and online activism allowed the campaign to connect physical street-level efforts with digital engagement, creating a unified front that ultimately turned the tide. The path to victory was complicated by chaotic conditions on election day. Brazil’s electronic voting system is typically known for its speed and reliability, but the process descended into disorder on Sunday afternoon. Both campaigns requested extensions to voting hours due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rain, floods, and power outages, as well as transportation issues. Lula’s Workers’ Party specifically cited problems getting voters to polling stations in key states, including Bahia, a major leftist stronghold in the northeast, and São Paulo, the country’s largest electoral district. Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party sought extensions only in municipalities within five states affected by severe weather. At 5:00 p.m. local time, the scheduled closing hour, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered that polling centers remain open for an additional two hours. Zanin later clarified that the order applied only to centers still open at that moment, noting that many had already closed. This decision sparked immediate controversy. Bolsonaro accused the Supreme Court of changing the rules during the game, arguing that the national extension undermined equal treatment among states. He stated that it was impossible to recognize the results because he could not know how many votes he might have received in states where polls did not reopen. Bolsonaro called the day’s events "abnormal" and "unacceptable," insisting that the elections should be annulled. He added that he would take legal measures against the outcome and planned to make further statements to the press and the judiciary. Zanin, who was appointed to the court by Lula after serving as his personal attorney, faced criticism for the timing of the ruling. Reports indicated that Lula’s team submitted their request for an extension to the Superior Electoral Court at 1:30 p.m. When they received no response, they escalated the complaint to the Supreme Court at 3:00 p.m. Edson Fachin, the president of the Supreme Court, received the petition and spent an hour and a half deliberating before the decision was issued. Television footage captured frustrated citizens arriving at closed polling stations, with some expressing regret at being unable to cast their ballots despite multiple attempts. In the first round held three weeks earlier, Lula trailed Bolsonaro, receiving 47 percent of the vote compared to Bolsonaro’s 45 percent. There was no precedent in Brazil’s current democratic era, which began in 1985, for a candidate losing the first round to win the second. Lula’s victory defied pollsters who had predicted a closer race or a potential loss. Upon winning, Lula told reporters in São Paulo that Brazilians went to the polls because the campaign successfully convinced them that voting was vital for safeguarding democracy. He reflected on his life, stating that everything that had happened to him was a miracle. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, ran as a more moderate version of his father, who was convicted last year of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. Despite this distinction, the campaign remained deeply ideological. International figures also weighed in on the proceedings. Susana Botár argued that attempts by foreign actors, including Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Marco Rubio, and the tech company Meta, to influence the election backfired. She claimed these external pressures produced the opposite effect intended, galvanizing domestic opposition. The upcoming challenge for Lula’s new mandate involves navigating a Congress where the right wing holds significant strength. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro, who will lose his public office for the first time in twenty-four years, continues to prepare legal challenges against the certified results.