Sei mesi dopo, il regime iraniano resiste, gli obiettivi statunitensi rimangono irraggiungibili

Six months after the United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, the conflict continues with no resolution in sight. Despite initial expectations that the operation would swiftly achieve its objectives, the situation has instead evolved into a prolonged struggle marked by shifting strategies and unmet goals. Analysts suggest that the U.S. effort has not succeeded in compelling Iran to comply with Western demands, and the administration's approach has shifted from direct military action to an economic campaign aimed at isolating the country further. Ordinary Iranians continue to bear the brunt of the conflict, suffering under both the actions of their government and external pressures. On the first day of the war, February 28, U.S. President Donald Trump had assured Iranians that “the hour of your freedom is at hand.” However, six months later, his administration is attempting to exacerbate economic hardship in hopes of sparking a revolution against the repressive, militarized regime. The Iranian leadership, increasingly influenced by military figures, views its survival as synonymous with national security. It frames the sacrifices of its citizens as patriotic acts, even martyrdom, and has grown more severe in suppressing any form of dissent. This has led to a deepening crisis within the country, where the populace faces increasing hardship while the regime maintains a firm grip on power. Despite the overwhelming military might of the United States and Israel, the Islamic Republic has endured. In fact, it has emerged stronger, effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz and expanding its regional influence. Even nations previously targeted during the airstrikes are now seeking to restore diplomatic relations with Iran. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, states that the war has failed to deliver U.S. objectives. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and head of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, concurs, noting that although significant damage has been inflicted upon Iran, the country has emerged more resilient than before. Neighboring countries have recognized the need to establish a working relationship with a regime that shows no signs of collapsing. U.S. credibility among its allies has suffered alongside Trump’s reputation for avoiding costly conflicts in the Middle East and emphasizing affordability domestically. His promise of liberation for Iranians now seems hollow in light of ongoing economic sanctions and the lack of political change in Iran. Operation Epic Fury, initiated with a joint U.S.-Israeli surprise attack, resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking officials, while severely injuring his son and current successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Weeks of intense bombing devastated parts of Iran’s air force and navy, significantly damaging its missile program. Yet, the anticipated uprising among the civilian population did not occur, nor did the leadership show signs of disintegration. Iran’s military has since rebuilt many of its missile capabilities and launched attacks on key U.S. allies in the region, as well as on U.S. bases that were poorly protected. These actions have led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing global economic disruptions. Exact casualty figures remain uncertain, but thousands of Iranians, including children, have perished, along with 18 American service members. In response to these developments, the original Operation Epic Fury has been replaced by what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced last Monday as Operation Economic Outcast. This new strategy aims to further isolate Iran economically, targeting its already weakened financial system. Bessent described this as a sustained campaign intended to dismantle all remaining options for Iran, stating that the initiative will intensify daily and will persist indefinitely.