Risposta alla guerra iraniana: il contorno di Hormus

The Gulf states are accelerating efforts to build alternative ports and pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been increasingly disrupted due to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. The initiative focuses primarily on oil and fertilizer transportation, aiming to reduce dependence on the critical maritime chokepoint. With daily traffic through the strait accounting for one-fifth of global crude oil shipments, 20 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and 30 percent of worldwide fertilizer production, the disruption poses a significant threat to global energy security and supply chains. The idea of connecting the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) via a railway network was once considered a visionary project. It was discussed during a journey aboard an InterCity Express (ICE) train in May 1999, when former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and then-Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani deliberated over the plan. The Deutsche Bahn received a consulting contract for the project, but political tensions between Qatar and its neighbors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) led to the concept fading into obscurity. Although Sheikh Hamad passed away at the age of 74, his vision has gained renewed relevance amid current geopolitical challenges. The recent collapse of a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has intensified concerns over the stability of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, located between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf, serves as a vital artery for global trade. The disruption has sparked discussions about diversifying trade routes and enhancing regional infrastructure to mitigate future risks. According to Allison Minor, director of Middle East cooperation at the Atlantic Council, the crisis has created momentum for new land-based trade corridors linking the Gulf with the Mediterranean. These proposed corridors aim to strengthen economic ties in a region historically marked by low integration and political fragmentation. They include both rail networks and pipeline systems designed to connect Gulf ports with Mediterranean destinations. These projects would circumvent Iranian-controlled areas and provide alternative routes for transporting oil and fertilizers. For instance, existing pipelines such as the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline transport up to 1.8 million barrels per day from Abu Dhabi’s offshore fields to Fujairah, a key port in the UAE located east of Hormuz. This facility already plays a crucial role in supplying bunker fuel to tankers. Now, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has announced plans to double the capacity of this pipeline system. The goal is to ensure reliable energy supplies and reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has long operated the East-West Pipeline, which transports two million barrels of crude oil daily from the country’s eastern oil-rich regions to the western part of the kingdom. From there, another five million barrels can be sent to the Red Sea port of Yanbu for export. Plans are underway to expand Yanbu and construct a new port near the futuristic city of Neom, further boosting the region's energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Iranian government has been developing its own pipeline network, including the Goreh pipeline, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. This project, initiated five years ago, aims to enhance domestic energy distribution and support regional trade. However, the broader strategy of diversifying trade routes continues to gain traction among Gulf nations, driven by the need for greater resilience against geopolitical uncertainties. As these initiatives progress, they could reshape the dynamics of international energy markets and foster deeper economic collaboration across the Middle East.