Cinque motivi per cui il petrolio non è ancora più costoso

The price of crude oil has remained below the levels predicted by analysts following the outbreak of war with Iran, despite heightened tensions and geopolitical disruptions. In Slovenia, fuel prices have risen significantly, leaving many drivers frustrated at the pump. The increase is a result of movements on the global market, driven by renewed attacks by the United States and Iran. However, over the past five months since the start of the conflict, the price of a barrel of Brent crude has not reached the highs forecasted by experts and commentators. On July 21, 2026, at 14:30, the price of a barrel of crude oil stood at $90, slightly higher than the $76 recorded ten days earlier, just before the latest escalation between Iran and the U.S. During the period from the beginning of the war to early July, the average price of a barrel was $101, with the highest reaching $126. This remains well below the record high of $147 set during the Middle East crisis in 2008, when fears of an Israeli attack on Iran led to sharp increases. Adjusting for inflation, that figure would be equivalent to approximately $228 today. So why have oil prices not surged as expected? A Reuters analysis highlights five key reasons. First, China’s unexpected move has played a crucial role. As the world's largest importer of crude oil, China has significantly reduced its imports this year. From January to June, the country cut its import volume to the lowest level in nearly a decade. Reasons include government restrictions on fuel exports, increased use of electric taxis over personal vehicles, and reduced production in the petrochemical industry. China’s demand dropped by roughly five million barrels per day, which accounts for about five percent of global output, substantially influencing global pricing dynamics. Second, the United States has contributed to stabilizing the market by increasing supply. In April, the U.S. extracted a record 13.93 million barrels of oil in a single day. Additionally, the nation released 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves, an agreement made with the International Energy Agency to mitigate disruptions caused by the war. These actions have led to a decline in U.S. oil reserves, dropping by more than 700 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels by mid-July, the lowest level in nearly four decades. Third, statements by former President Donald Trump have influenced market sentiment. Throughout periods of heightened tension with Iran, he repeatedly downplayed concerns, asserting that peace talks were ongoing and that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was assured. His unpredictable remarks have discouraged investors and speculators who had anticipated rising prices. March saw the highest volume of bets placed on a rise in oil prices in six years, but subsequent activity has declined sharply, currently barely exceeding half of the March levels. Fourth, increased shipping activity elsewhere has helped maintain supply stability. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the Persian Gulf, has notably boosted shipments from its Jeddah port on the Red Sea, helping offset disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Although maritime traffic briefly resumed in June, easing concerns over supply availability, it has since returned to levels similar to those in April. Finally, traders assert that there is currently sufficient physical crude oil available on the market, limiting price increases despite recent escalations in conflict. This abundance has tempered expectations of a dramatic surge, even amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.