Crescente prezzo del petrolio e scetticismo sull'IA: le borse stanno creando una pericolosa miscela?

Global stock markets have faced turbulence in July amid rising oil prices and growing skepticism around artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, creating a volatile environment for investors. The sharp increase in crude oil prices, combined with concerns over inflation and potential interest rate hikes, has led to a pullback in equity markets after a strong first half of the year. This shift follows a period of optimism driven by hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict involving Iran, which had previously fueled market gains. The situation began to change in early July, as renewed hostilities in the region pushed up the price of Brent crude oil to above $90 per barrel for the first time in over a month. At the same time, enthusiasm for AI-related stocks has cooled, leading to a sell-off in semiconductor companies. This decline was particularly pronounced in Asia, where Chinese authorities reportedly intervened with large-scale purchases to stabilize the sector. Meanwhile, the performance of SpaceX's shares has also declined, marking a contrast to its initial successful public offering earlier this year. Markets in Europe and the United States showed signs of recovery late last week, with the Nasdaq technology index rebounding after losses in the previous week. However, the persistent high oil prices continue to raise fears of renewed inflationary pressures. In Austria, for example, the Organization of Austrian Motorists' Clubs (ÖAMTC) criticized the slow transmission of lower crude oil prices to retail fuel stations in June. With oil prices now rising again, and government measures to cap fuel prices being relaxed, these concerns remain acute. Maximilian Wenke, a market analyst at eToro, warned that further escalation of the conflict could push energy prices even higher, potentially increasing expectations for additional interest rate increases. He noted that the number of ship passages through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, indicating a slowdown in oil and freight traffic. Analysts from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group added that the anticipated recovery in shipping activity has essentially stalled. Despite these challenges, most experts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to refrain from raising interest rates further during its upcoming decision on Thursday, following a quarter-point increase in June that brought the key rate to 2.25 percent. However, another rate hike could occur in September. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is also likely to maintain a hawkish stance, contrary to earlier expectations before the Iranian conflict, which had suggested possible rate cuts. Wenke summarized the current market dynamics as the need to manage two major risks simultaneously. On one side, geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pose a threat, while on the other, the reassessment of the AI narrative continues within the technology sector. Recent weeks have seen significant pressure on shares of AI beneficiaries, with analysts noting a trend toward profit-taking rather than panic selling. Thomas Altmann from QC Partners observed that while there is no widespread panic, investor willingness to sell has increased. Positive signals have emerged from some quarters, including reports from JP Morgan, though specific details were not fully disclosed. Investors are now closely watching developments in both the Middle East and the evolving landscape of AI-driven technologies, seeking clarity on whether recent market fluctuations represent a temporary correction or the beginning of a more prolonged downturn.