Netanyahu si trova in una trappola elettorale: il vero fenomeno sta accadendo a destra del suo Likud

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure as Israel prepares for its first parliamentary elections since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which triggered nearly three years of war and profound societal transformation. The upcoming vote on November 27 will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power amid shifting voter allegiances and rising influence from far-right rivals within his own right-wing bloc. While Netanyahu's Likud party remains central to the political landscape, the real contest appears to be unfolding among more radical factions on the right, including figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, whose increasingly extreme rhetoric could alienate moderate voters. The election comes after a period marked by intense conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, as well as deep internal political divisions. Over 1,200 civilians were killed in the initial Hamas assault, with more than 250 taken hostage. This was followed by extensive military operations in Gaza, direct clashes with Iranian-backed groups, and a crisis that has shaken public confidence in both security policies and leadership. As a result, Israeli voters no longer align strictly along traditional left-right lines. Instead, the primary divide centers around Netanyahu’s leadership, national security concerns, and the question of how to deal with Palestinians following the war. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have emerged as key players in this new political dynamic. Both are members of far-right parties that advocate for policies ranging from opposition to Palestinian statehood to open calls for annexing the West Bank, resettling Gaza, and relocating Palestinians. Their rhetoric has grown increasingly inflammatory, pushing the boundaries of acceptable political discourse. These positions risk turning off centrist voters who might otherwise support Netanyahu’s coalition. Analysts suggest that while Netanyahu still holds sway over many traditional conservative voters, the rise of these hardline figures threatens to fracture the right-wing alliance he relies upon. The political landscape has been further complicated by the emergence of new nationalist competitors. These groups challenge not only Netanyahu’s dominance but also the broader ideological framework of the right-wing bloc. Their presence has forced Netanyahu to recalibrate his strategy, balancing the need to maintain unity within his coalition against the growing appeal of more radical alternatives. This tension is evident in recent policy shifts and public statements aimed at reassuring moderate supporters while attempting to contain the influence of more extreme elements. Public reaction to the evolving situation has been mixed. Some segments of the population welcome the uncompromising stance of figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, viewing them as necessary voices in the wake of the trauma caused by the Hamas attack. Others, however, fear that their rhetoric could exacerbate tensions and lead to further instability. Political analysts warn that the increasing polarization could make it difficult for any single party to secure a clear majority, potentially leading to prolonged government formation processes or even new coalitions that include unexpected allies. As the election approaches, all major political actors are intensifying their campaigns. Netanyahu has sought to position himself as the stabilizing force capable of ensuring continued security and economic progress. Meanwhile, his rivals are leveraging the frustrations of voters who feel abandoned by mainstream politics. The outcome of the election will depend largely on how effectively each side can address the concerns of undecided voters, particularly those who remain wary of both the far right and the perceived failures of the current administration. The final results will likely hinge on the ability of Netanyahu and his opponents to navigate the delicate balance between security assurances and the risks associated with extreme nationalism. With the country still reeling from the aftermath of the war, the choices made in the coming weeks could shape Israel’s trajectory for years to come.