La promessa elettorale di Mahmoud Abbas non porterà la democrazia ai palestinesi - opinione

Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), has announced that legislative elections will be held on November 28, 2026, according to recent reports. This marks the first such election since 2006, when Hamas secured a majority in parliamentary polls, triggering a prolonged conflict with the ruling Fatah party. While the announcement has been met with cautious optimism by some observers, others question whether the move signals genuine democratic progress or serves as a means of consolidating power. Abbas’s decision follows years of stalled electoral processes. Legislative and presidential elections originally set for May 22, 2021, and July 31, 2021, respectively, were postponed. The PA cited Israel’s refusal to permit East Jerusalem residents to vote as the reason. However, critics argue that internal divisions within Fatah played a larger role. Prominent figures such as Marwan Barghouti and Mohammed Dahlan, both potential challengers to Abbas, have been seen as threats to his continued rule. Barghouti, currently imprisoned and serving multiple life sentences, had previously expressed intent to run against Abbas in the 2021 presidential race. The timing of the upcoming elections has raised further concerns. With Hamas gaining increasing support in the West Bank following the October 7 attacks, Abbas’s push for elections may be aimed at demonstrating public backing for his administration. Additionally, the announcement coincides with heightened domestic pressure and financial strain on the PA. It comes just days before the European Union’s second meeting of the Palestine Donor Group, suggesting that the move might also be intended to bolster the PA’s position with international donors. The electoral process itself presents another layer of complexity. Under the existing framework, candidates must agree to abide by the PLO’s commitments under the Oslo Accords, a stipulation that would effectively bar Hamas from participating. Allowing Hamas to compete could undermine the PA’s authority and stability in the West Bank. Conversely, excluding it risks rendering the elections illegitimate in the eyes of many Palestinians who view Hamas as a legitimate political force despite its rejection of the Oslo Accords. Despite its absence from the April 2026 municipal elections, Hamas has already exerted influence through informal support for independent candidates. Analysts suggest that the group will continue to work behind the scenes to strengthen its presence in both social and political spheres. This strategy could pose challenges to efforts toward peace and governance, particularly given Hamas’s history of authoritarian tendencies after taking control of Gaza in 2007. Abbas’s pledge for a presidential election in 2027 adds another dimension to the situation. At 90 years old, the prospect of his running again has sparked speculation about succession planning. While Abbas has not officially confirmed his intention to seek re-election, the move may indicate a final attempt to secure his legacy as the PA’s authority continues to wane. Many Palestinians remain wary of the implications of such a scenario, especially as questions surrounding leadership transition persist. The upcoming elections will test the credibility of the PA and its commitment to democratic principles. While the formal inclusion of Hamas remains uncertain, the broader impact of the electoral process on regional dynamics and internal stability is likely to be profound. As the date approaches, all eyes will be on how the PA navigates the complex interplay of politics, power, and public sentiment.