FOTO GRIMA: Il censimento dei ghepardi sudafricani che ha spezzato l'illusione della popolazione

South Africa's first nationwide census of free-roaming cheetahs has revealed a stark reality: the population of mature adult cheetahs is far lower than previously believed. The survey, conducted over three and a half years, identified a minimum of 83 mature cheetahs across nearly 100,000 square kilometers of the Northern Cape, North West, and Limpopo provinces. When cubs and subadults are included, the verified total reaches 119 individuals. During the study, 17 mature cheetahs died, though experts caution that this does not necessarily indicate a sudden collapse from earlier estimates of around 300. Marna Smit, project coordinator at Ashia Cheetah Conservation, described the previous estimate of 300 as more of an educated guess than a reliable figure. “Nobody ever really knew for sure,” she said. “The 300 was a guess from people who worked in the field, and they kind of just went with that for lack of any better evidence.” Now, with the completion of the census, scientists have a clearer baseline. “This is the first correct, or the most correct, baseline that we’ve ever had,” Smit added. “Maybe we’ve always had low numbers and the estimates were ridiculously high.” The census relied on a combination of advanced techniques, including 389 camera traps, three field teams, farmer interviews, genetic sampling, GPS collars, and over five million images. Fieldwork was challenging, with teams spending up to three months at a time traveling through remote areas. Natural disasters such as floods disrupted operations, while human threats like poaching and theft of equipment further complicated efforts. Despite these obstacles, the data collected provides a detailed picture of the current state of cheetah populations. Image recognition technology played a key role in analyzing the vast amount of visual data. However, even with AI assistance, accuracy remained limited. “AI is great, but it’s only great about 70% of the time,” Smit noted. Human verification was essential, especially for matching individual cheetahs based on their unique spot patterns. While Smit acknowledges that some animals may have gone unnoticed, she believes the effort was thorough enough to provide a reliable estimate. “I’m sure there are some that we’ve missed,” she said. “But considering the effort that we put in, I wouldn’t say we missed a lot. Even if there’s another 50% of that number, that’s still only about 120 mature animals, which is not a lot.” The cheetahs studied live in some of the most unforgiving environments in South Africa, on farms, along roads, near fences, and in small patches of open land between protected areas. Unlike other predators such as caracals and leopards, cheetahs are often blamed for livestock losses due to their daytime activity. “Cheetahs get blamed because you see them more often,” Smit explained. She pointed out that caracals and jackals are typically responsible for smaller livestock thefts, while leopards target larger animals. Nevertheless, the visibility of cheetahs makes them easy targets for criticism. Farmer engagement proved crucial to the success of the census. Approximately 90% of landowners were willing to participate, though they expressed skepticism toward researchers who arrived, collected data, and then disappeared. Anonymous questionnaires enabled farmers to report instances of cheetahs being shot, captured, or relocated without proper authorization. While financial pressures were a concern, Smit observed that hostility was less prevalent than expected. “There was less outright hatred than financial pressure,” she said. Louis Heyns, a field team member, secured the safety box for a camera trap in Limpopo, highlighting the logistical challenges faced during the survey. The findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to protect one of Africa’s most iconic yet vulnerable species. As the data becomes available, scientists and conservationists will begin to assess whether the population is declining or if the current numbers represent a stable, albeit low, baseline.